Foreign policy challenges

A coherent, well-formulated and popularly supported foreign policy is essential, especially in an age of globalisation when new and daunting challenges have emerged. Foreign policy cannot be seen in isolation, for it is only a reflection of a country’s domestic policy.

The two are linked inextricably, as foreign policy cannot be effective and credible unless backed by a domestic policy that promotes harmony and good governance at home.

The preceding sentences are drawn from the PML-N’s electoral manifesto in 2013. They make for sensible reading. But ‘National Security and Foreign Policy’ was only the 12th section in the PML-N manifesto of 14 parts.

Some 23m children are out of school in Pakistan because governments have neglected education, even though free universal education from ages five to 16 years is a constitutional right.

Access to public schooling remains dependent on family income, geographical location and gender. Most children drop out by the age of nine; and girls from poor communities are least likely to attend school.

On top of this, Pakistan’s gender enrolment gap is the widest in South Asia after Afghanistan. If this election is to change the status quo, voters should elect representatives for their commitment to education.

In 2013, political parties, including the PPP, PTI and PML-N identified education reform as improving learning abilities, reducing teacher absenteeism and eliminating gender disparities in schooling among other issues. But the reforms undertaken have been a drop in the ocean.

While the PML-N government increased enrolment, gave stipends to girls, and pioneered merit-based teacher recruitment in Punjab, it failed to offer education expertise and resources to other provinces.

Although a part of the coalition government in Balochistan, it abandoned educational reforms in a province where 1.89m children remain out of school.

In KP, the PTI’s ambitious education policies showcased a first-time party’s keen intentions. But the trajectory starting out with promises towards implementation remained thorny.

A new government should focus on policy implementation improving learning scores, enrolment and retention in a province where 51pc of girls remain out of school despite budgets higher than the UN recommended 20pc baseline.

Meanwhile, for too long, the PPP-led Sindh government’s atrocious report card has needed attention, especially the concern of ‘ghost’ teachers and the wide gender gap.

In the 2018 manifestos, parties would do well to commit to bringing out-of-school children into the education system, indicating the duration, sustained reforms and budgets required to achieve the goal.

Only realistic goals and incentives are beneficial. Reforms vary countrywide which means policy consensus across party lines will provide opportunities to learn from best practices.

The major goals are to ensure that education spending is 4pc of GDP as stipulated by the UN, to improve resources for those students who gain the least, and to ensure schooling is not discontinued at any stage.

Replicating some successful public-private partnership school models seen in Punjab and Sindh can also be an election goal, as could regular reviews of district performances and ensuring accountability.

Nelson Mandela noted: “Education is the most powerful weapon that you can use to change the world.” Only parties with a vision can understand the truth of his words and work towards implementing their promises.

Published in Dawn, June 5th, 2018

Where it did talk about growth, its focus was on small and medium enterprises, jobs, skills and agriculture.

Its focus on manufacturing was in the form of Special Economic Zones, or zones carved out of the national economy where a different set of policies would be applicable to encourage investment.

On trade, it said only that it would “build on creative currency swap agreements”.

The PML-N focused on macroeconomic indicators.

It pledged to cut the budget deficit and inflation, open markets for trade and raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 15pc by the end of its term.

For industry, the party offered a set of incentives to boost exports and foreign investment, and pledged to broaden the export base beyond textiles to include IT products.

The PTI’s manifesto highlighted stagnant growth rates in 2013, build-up of national debt, depleting foreign exchange reserves and the high fiscal deficit.

It also targeted a 6pc growth rate and pledged to reduce inflation (below 7pc) and raise investment to 21.4pc of GDP from 12pc in 2013.

Tax revenue, the manifesto promised, would rise to 15pc of GDP — the same commitment as the PML-N — while “welfare spending” would quadruple, and the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.5pc of GDP.

The PML-N and PTI, despite the hostile politics between them, offered substantially similar economic visions in 2013 but different paths to achieving them.

Where the PML-N talked of incentives, the PTI pinned its delivery on tackling corruption, taking action against cartels, hoarders, speculators and power and fuel theft.

In short, where the vision presented by the PML-N aimed to provide incentives to promote growth and exports, the PTI’s goal was to weed out behaviour and practices it felt were holding back the country’s economic potential.

Beyond that, they converged on the same objectives.

Perhaps for this election, the parties can sharpen their focus on three specific, core dysfunctions that afflict Pakistan’s economy.

These are the circular debt, the fiscal deficit and the external sector deficit (or the erosion of the economy’s competitiveness versus other countries).

These dysfunctions lie at the heart of what ails the economy, and nothing can change until they are tackled in a sustainable way.

By now, all parties should have learnt that what was described as the ‘energy crisis’ in 2013 was far more than just a gap between the supply and demand for electricity.

It was also an inability to meet the power sector’s growing costs, its upfront investment costs as well as its running costs.

Moreover, it was also the inability to grow and manage the power sector within the confines of a centralised power bureaucracy.

This is why all the megawatts on earth will not save us from what we call the ‘power crisis’ if deep-rooted reforms are not advanced in tandem.

The twin deficits — fiscal and external — are linked, and they have for decades sent our rulers on a search for big partners who were willing to subsidise our dysfunctions in return for a commitment to help advance their agenda in our own region.

This has worked to our detriment.

Outside of geopolitics, there is the International Monetary Fund.

This tendency of the economy to burn foreign exchange reserves within a few years, thereby forcing an approach to the IMF, has to end, and the only way it can is if we have a vision that targets the root cause — the economy.

For example, consider that all research on the question is now clear that a more open regional trade policy can play a vital role in improving the economy’s capacity to accumulate foreign exchange reserves, yet powerful impediments remain in moving ahead in this direction.

When drawing up their manifestos, the parties should use the opportunity to reflect on how these three problems are interlinked, then make them the centrepiece of their electoral document.

Let each party promise to take the country out of the decades-old cycle of continuous depletion of foreign exchange reserves and reform the power system to make it able to sustain its own costs.

That is an ambition worthy of a five-year effort at the top.

Published in Dawn, June 6th, 2018

However, this final flourish cannot erase the fact that Pakistan fared poorly in its UN-mandated Universal Periodic Review earlier this year, largely on account of the rising incidence of enforced disappearances, a practice associated with some of the most brutal regimes in history.

Clearly, the political parties have not done enough to improve human rights, whether through fresh legislation or by implementing existing laws.

They have a chance to redeem themselves if they come to power through the elections on July 25. And their 2018 manifestos must provide the blueprint.

Of the three main political parties — the PML-N, PPP and PTI — only the PPP included a cursory mention of enforced disappearances in its previous manifesto.

This time around, in order to assert civilian authority over the functions of the state, political parties must put on record their refusal to countenance the deplorable practice, and spell out measures to bring the perpetrators to justice.

Such repudiation, however, must be accompanied by reforms in the criminal justice system, for what is enforced disappearance but an extreme violation of the right to due process?

The demands of national security should no longer be used as a tacit justification for enforced disappearances.

Instead of abdicating counter-terrorism responsibilities to the security establishment, as the PML-N government did in its last tenure, political parties should vow to establish democratic and parliamentary oversight of the intelligence services.

It is high time that rhetoric about speedy and inexpensive justice — and witness protection programmes — was translated into action.

After all, a law is only as good as its enforcement: the PPP-led Sindh government took three years to draft the rules of business for the witness protection law it passed in September 2013.

Also, a depoliticised, community-oriented police force is the people’s right: the PPP and PML-N should take a leaf out of the PTI’s book in its singular achievement on this score in KP.

No society can claim progress without ensuring women’s equal participation in the political process. Reserved seats — election to which is dependent largely on male politicians — are no substitute for being directly elected, and a 10pc quota for women candidates on general seats must be on every party’s agenda.

Equality in the public sphere is concomitant with equality in the private. However, only the PML-N in Punjab has so far followed anti-domestic violence legislation with practical measures such as women protection centres, etc.

Domestic violence did not even earn a mention in the PTI’s previous manifesto. Hopefully no party will surrender to misogynistic ‘cultural sensitivities’ in 2018.

Another reality, one we have been confronted with far too often, is violence arising from bigotry and prejudice against the minorities.

In this, political parties have cravenly submitted to the bully pulpit of the religious lobby.

The PTI, under pressure from its minority partner in KP, the Jamaat-i-Islami, reintroduced ideologically biased language into textbooks.

The PPP has relegated to the back burner its law against forced conversions in Sindh, and no party has the courage to allude to even procedural change in the blasphemy law, the misuse of which causes disproportionate misery to minorities.

Will any party have the courage and integrity to address this most thorny of issues?

Children are also, for obvious reasons, deserving of special provisions to protect them. As the horrific Kasur child abuse case illustrates, we are doing far too little to protect our young people.

Political parties could even look to other countries for workable child abduction alert systems that could be replicated in Pakistan, aside from enforcing already existing laws.

Violence against child domestic workers too requires urgent redressal and must receive particular attention in the forthcoming election manifestos.

Raising the minimum age for marriage to 18 years in Sindh is a feather in the PPP’s cap, but improvements in the juvenile justice system remain an unmet promise.

As to the differently abled, who perhaps have the least amount of social protections, the PTI’s previous manifesto contained the most wide-ranging provisions to ensure not only their welfare but inclusivity as well, including their representation in the assemblies.

If ambitious, at least the party’s words represent some understanding of the way in which people with disabilities have been marginalised in this society. The other parties must take a cue from the PTI’s approach.

While high-flown rhetoric is often a feature of election manifestos, and can even serve as an acknowledgment of the issues that need addressing, parties should realistically assess what lies within their capabilities.

There is something to be said for them to append targeted, ‘doable’ measures to each subject in their manifestos. Exceeding one’s promises will win voters the next time around; failing to meet them only leads to disenchantment — with the party and the democratic process.

Published in Dawn, June 7th, 2018

Conserving the environment

THIS country’s economy is heavily invested in agriculture. Simultaneously, Pakistan is ranked amongst those nations that are at the very cusp of suffering the most adverse effects of climate change, pollution and the stripping of natural resources.

Given this state of affairs, it is remarkable that with an election coming up that shows all signs of being abrasively fought, environmental degradation, ecological conservation and sustainability aren’t receiving much attention from even the major political parties.

There is a whole range of environmental challenges that they must highlight in their manifestos. Urgent issues include deforestation, rampant pollution and a looming water crisis that could result in drought-like conditions.

Already, one can feel the effects: losses in the agriculture sector, hunger and malnutrition, a growing healthcare burden, and the associated pressure on human — and hence national — productivity.

At the time of the last elections, these matters were already a cause for concern and were addressed in dedicated sections of the parties’ 2013 agendas.

Unfortunately, outcomes have been sketchy.

The PML-N promised to insert the “right to food” as a fundamental constitutional right. It could be faulted for not having spelt out how this might be achieved, but that remains a moot point since the insertion was never made.

Similarly, while a federal Ministry of Climate Change was eventually set up, it remains a largely toothless entity involved in saving face in terms of Pakistan’s international environmental commitments.

In Sindh, meanwhile, the PPP’s good intentions of providing “clean drinking water for everyone” can only be summarily dismissed, while sufficient sewage treatment plants remain a dream: indeed, much of Karachi’s waste flows directly into the sea.

The PPP’s 2013 election manifesto promised to “curb the trafficking of endangered species”, but outcomes have been mixed, while the granting of permission to hunt the endangered houbara bustard remains condemnable.

Matters appear somewhat more encouraging in KP, where the PTI made fair progress towards its “billion-tree tsunami”; yet the ideals of zero waste and mass transit systems that would reduce air pollution, for example, have gone unmet.

At a rally at the end of April, PTI chief Imran Khan included the environment in his 11-point agenda and promised to plant 10m trees across the country, if elected.

He also said that the proper cleaning of rivers and canals would be ensured, while an “agricultural emergency” would be imposed to improve the farm sector.

On its part, the PML-N promises food security and improvements in the yields of staple crops to ensure the availability of essential food items for all, at affordable prices, as well as clean drinking water for each citizen — a goal also laid out in its 2013 manifesto, but which was never met although gains were made. The party also refers to the creation of dams and improving water conservancy.

It is essential, therefore, that environmental issues be given more importance by parties contesting the upcoming elections.

By many accounts, these may well be amongst the biggest challenges (outside the political area) facing Pakistan in the coming years.

Amongst the measures desperately needed are commitments in their manifestos to improving ambient air quality especially in urban areas, and slowing down urbanisation.

Similarly, Pakistan’s forest cover stands at a mere 4pc of the total land mass, as against the global standard of 25pc.

But perhaps the first basic point that must be corrected is of policy: power for environmental management was devolved to the provinces under the 18th Amendment; that leaves little scope for the centre to lay down a minimum standard related to environmental factors.

This first step of cohesion on a pressing national concern would be a good show of commitment and could be a point in the 2018 manifestos.

Published in Dawn, June 8th, 2018

Health, the birthright of every Pakistani citizen to be protected by the state, has been held hostage to an ever-halting democratic process.

Even in times of democracy, political parties have demoted health to the periphery rather than maintaining it and scaling it up.

Instead of taking a holistic view, the focus has been on expensive and unnecessary specialist curative care provision, fragmented programmes, projects and institutes in the public, private and philanthropic sectors — all competing — and a duplication of efforts and commercialisation of the necessities in a poorly regulated private sector.

A comparison of the salient health features of the 2013 party manifestos shows that the PML-N demonstrated the most realistically planned health goals linked with outcomes, whilst in power.

Although its centralised approach was useful prior to devolution, building provincial-level capacity was required, with regulatory agencies to manage reforms and encourage local solutions.

Conversely, the PPP focused on principles rather than tangible outcomes — apparent in its subsequent performance in Sindh.

A lack of governance, poor referral-based health financing and questionable service delivery led to basic health needs largely remaining unmet.

In part, although the PTI health objectives echoed those of the PPP and PML-N, in practice rapid change was implemented, aligning social services to highlight gaps in health needs and potentially laying the ground for a ‘better’ health system by attracting motivated professionals.

Going forward, the 2018 manifestos should be a road map for new and previously enunciated health goals; they should describe what different types of healthcare services are in use and how usage will be measured.

In preparing their manifestos, the parties will have to keep the facts before them and address several concerns.

For instance, keeping in mind that private and philanthropic healthcare sectors also exist, what changes are being effected in the lives of beneficiaries using health services? Are these leading to an improved health status? When carrying out reforms in the public sector, it should be asked how much of a particular health service is being utilised and for what purpose.

Whether or not provision of services is giving the expected results should be regularly evaluated in a manner which seeks to find solutions for professionals rather than penalising their livelihoods.

When planning a new service it might a good idea for the government to consider what others (private and philanthropic entities) in the same area are doing and if they can be made complementary rather than competitive. This can only be achieved if regulatory measures are synchronised at the federal level.

There is also the question of what specific aspect of health in the community we are covering. Is a public-sector referral network available and being utilised to ensure that beneficiaries are also being referred for supplementary care provision? Are we utilising different professionals to cover all health aspects? What can we do to enable professionals to provide awareness within their communities? What is the basis of diagnostic tests, management and treatment in a community? Finally, are we doing disease surveillance? If so, what’s the disease occurrence, burden, distribution and severity? How does one take action when new threatening cases go beyond the capacity of the service available?

Parties must pledge a coherent framework that utilises all the sectors to discuss the evolution of Pakistan’s health systems in an inclusive manner ie broadening the scope to a systems-wide approach to develop a comprehensive health policy.

Published in Dawn, June 9th, 2018

SINCE independence, successive rulers have had a chequered relationship with the fourth estate, at various times resorting to mass incarcerations of journalists, even publicly flogging them, while several newspapers were banned outright by government decree.

Even civilian governments with democratic credentials, such as the PPP, that suffered brutal persecution under Gen Zia, were once responsible for curbing the press.

Though the Muslim League itself was born in tandem with the journalistic endeavour to report on the concerns and aspirations of Muslims under colonial rule, the PML-N too had to contend with political decimation under Gen Pervez Musharraf’s regime to acknowledge this fact.

It was through decades of struggle, through conflicts and crackdowns, that we now have a relatively independent media and its ancillaries: the freedoms of speech, expression and information.

These are the cornerstones of any true democracy, for it is through open reporting and spirited dialogue that an informed and equal citizenry can participate in vital decision-making processes.

An essential signifier of political parties’ commitment to strengthening democratic norms, therefore, is how they intend to regulate, protect and cultivate these media freedoms in their 2018 manifestos — without compromise, whether in office or opposition — for these rights are far from immune to erosion.

Over the years, run-of-the-mill exploitation of regulating bodies to gag the press has disturbingly given way to official (and unofficial) broadcast blackouts.

Amendments made to the Pemra Ordinance on Thursday, which limits federal powers and reconstitutes the body, may mitigate this to an extent, but parties must still pledge to legislate on the matter to ensure that the authority, often politicised or toothless, is made impartial, autonomous and empowered to regulate our TV airwaves without interference.

Illicit interventions also extend to print media, where a proliferation of abstruse ‘red lines’ and disruptions of newspaper distribution are fast becoming the new normal.

What guarantees can they make so that the press can disseminate news without intimidation or coercion by the government and other state institutions?

How do they plan to ensure that journalists (even those they might disagree with) are able to perform their duties without fear of reprisal?

Though media workers are familiar with adversity, including threats from militants, the impunity that still persists when they are attacked is perhaps most troubling.

In its 2013 manifesto, the PML-N pledged to enact a journalists’ protection law. The status of such legislation remained in limbo throughout its term; instead, its information ministry abruptly proposed then disavowed a controversial press ordinance last year.

Under such conditions, accessing information is paramount to disrupting a culture of secrecy.

Although right to information laws exists at the federal and provincial levels, some are more robust than others and implementation is still saddled by obstructionism.

The PTI made no direct reference to press freedom in its 2013 manifesto, but did focus heavily on RTI for accountability of public bodies.

While delivering on this promise in KP, its own government has twice sought to amend the RTI law to restrict its scope.

All citizens are entitled to access public records, and every party must pledge transparency (especially when in office) by committing to extend RTI to all territories in Pakistan, remove unreasonable exemptions in the laws and ensure that RTI commissions are functional and responsive.

Perhaps nowhere are these freedoms more vulnerable than in our nascent digital sector, which lacks a rights-based governance framework.

A political class that continues to ignore this issue in 2018 risks irrelevance — as Pakistan’s internet user base continues to grow, politicians, journalists and citizens alike rely increasingly on information communications technologies, including social media platforms.

This has had a transformative effect in the country, where we now see more diversity and inclusion in public opinion and challenges to the status quo.

While issues of online hate material, disinformation and harassment need to be addressed, parties must also realise the importance of framing judicious digital policies grounded on the precept of a free and open internet.

All must pledge to uphold net neutrality, ensure accessibility (particularly for marginalised groups) and protect personal data privacy.

Furthermore, the country’s murky cybercrime law must be amended to draw precise parameters on content regulation, limit the PTA’s powers to impose restrictions and allow for public scrutiny, and curtail open-ended cyber surveillance.

Now and in the years ahead, a free press and an empowered citizenry will be the strongest bulwark against anti-democratic forces.

Let us hope, then, for a government with the foresight and fortitude to cultivate the people’s greatest power — their voices.

Published in Dawn, June 10th, 2018

IN the main, local governments are in existence in Pakistan for two reasons. One, the elected political class as a whole inserted a clause in the Constitution via the 18th Amendment requiring that LG systems be established in the provinces and calling for the devolution of “political, administrative and financial responsibility and authority to the elected representatives of the local governments” (Article 140A).

Two, the Supreme Court indefatigably pursued the matter of the provinces holding LG elections. The ambivalence of the major political parties to hold LG polls and meaningfully transfer power to LGs can be gauged from the relatively scant treatment of the subject in the 2013 manifestos.

The PPP and PML-N essentially glossed over the subject of LGs, while the PTI, which did go on to transfer significant responsibilities and powers to LGs in KP, pledged to hold LG elections within 100 days, a promise that was not kept.

In 2018, the challenges on the LG front remain significant.

Complicating the matter, though allowing for comparisons among the major political parties, is that the current LG systems were brought into existence by four different political governments in the four provinces.

If there is a transfer of power at the provincial level to a different political party or coalition following the 2018 general election, the future of local government in that province will depend on the provincial governing party’s commitment to the democratic project.

Certainly, the PTI has demonstrated that it is head and shoulders above the other major parties in its commitment to meaningful reforms at the local level.

In KP, the LG system is, on paper and in practice so far, forward-thinking and innovative. The extension of franchise to the village and neighbourhood level, including the funnelling of significant powers and monies to village councils and neighbourhood councils, is unprecedented. Mandating that at least 30pc of the provincial development government be transferred to LGs is historic.

The execution of LGs in KP has not been without its problems. Monitoring the functioning of village and neighbourhood councils has proved difficult in practice; a relative lack of expertise and capacity at the local level has limited utilisation of LG powers and duties; and the provincial financial commission and LG commission have not been as active as they ought to be.

Yet, the problems pale in comparison to Punjab and Sindh, where LGs have arguably been structured to fail or certainly remain wholly dependent on the provincial set-ups.

Remarkably, lacunae in the Punjab and Sindh LG systems allow for Punjab to dissolve LGs by notification before the expiry of its term while the Sindh law does not automatically require the holding of the next LG polls after the completion of the current term.

Meanwhile, Balochistan may have been the first provincial government to hold a round of LG elections, but with overall governance structures in the province in a shambles and a security environment that is virtually inimical to civilian administration, there is little welcome news from there.

More positively, the very fact that LGs exist in all four provinces and each of the major political parties has experience with drafting and implementing LG systems suggests the general election could be an opportunity for the major political parties to put forward improvements to the LG systems and for voters at the provincial level to demand improvements at the LG level.

The PTI is perhaps best positioned to carry the debate forward on LG; the positive LG example the party has set may encourage other parties to follow suit.

Published in Dawn, June 11th, 2018