KARACHI, March 27: Pakistan should have a principled and prudent approach to post-war scenario and go with the vast majority of international community which is against the allied forces’ invasion of Iraq.

This was a statement endorsed unanimously during a seminar on The likely effects on Pakistan of the Iraq war organized by Pakistan Press Foundation (PPF) at its Vicky Zeitllin Library here on Thursday.

Speakers at the seminar were of the view that Islamabad should emphasize on the central role of the United Nations in resolving the issue.

The speakers included Najmaul Saqib Khan (a former ambassador to Iraq and Japan), Irfan Hussain (an economist/columnist), M. H. Askari (a former diplomat and freelance journalist), S. M. Afzal (journalist), Dr Merajul Huda Siddiqui (Amir of Jamaat-i-Islami, Karachi), Mohammad Mansoor Ali (head of research department, State Bank) and Samina Ishaq.

Najmaul Saqib Khan, told the participants that as a consequence of the ongoing war, extremist groups around the world would become stronger whereas anti-terrorism forces lined up to combat the menace globally would be enfeebled.

“A wide government-people gap is likely to emerge, especially in Gulf countries, which may lead to instability and disastrous consequences for the whole region.”

He observed that UN had lost its importance due to the defiance by the United States and Britain with regard to the invasion.

The former diplomat pointed out that for the first time, all the races had been demonstrating their utter disapproval of the policies pursued by the two permanent members of the United Nations.

The US and UK leaders, he added, had propounded doctrine of pre-emptive strikes which was a clear breach of international law and UN Charter.

Acknowledging moral support to Iraq from Islamic countries vis-a-vis the conflict, he said that they fell short of military support due to the lack of required means.

Mr Saqib observed that to the utter dismay of allied forces, masses in Iraq did not welcome the invading troops, nor did any popular uprising against Saddam Hussain take place.

Irfan Hussain was of the view that oil would become cheaper after the war because the current low oil out put of the Gulf states had pushed oil price high.

Discussing post-war political and social situation in Pakistan, as well as other Islamic countries, he expressed fear of the re-emergence of fundamentalism. The risk of a wide gulf between US and Islamic countries was also there, he added.

Citing problems faced by Pakistani students and professionals in getting visa or continuing comfortable stay in the US and Western countries after 9/11 event, he pointed out that an even worse situation might develop after the ongoing war.

Mohammad Mansoor Ali said that at this moment it was difficult to quantify fallout.

He, however, quoting Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz as saying that oil import bill might go up by $1 billion by the end of the current fiscal year.

He pointed out that as oil market indicated, it was apparently not too negative in terms of oil supply and if the situation did not deteriorate, the oil bill might remain low.

He, however, expressed the apprehension that the potential risk likely to be faced by Pakistan was a decline in exports, specially in textile sector as some of the buyers were reluctant to place their orders in view of the fluid situation prevailing in the international market.

“April and May are the most conducive months as far as textile orders are concerned,” he noted.

In short, no significant impact of the war on Pakistan economy is likely unless some dramatic events took place, he said.

M. H. Askari said: “Our economy will ostensibly be not the same in post-war scenario as impact of war has already started showing negative signs which will further deteriorate the situation with the passage of time.” He observed that Iraq war was for oil as US eyed huge oil reserves of Gulf countries. In this regard, he pointed that certain US think-tanks in 1978 had suggested to the administration to gain control over Gulf oil.

Merajul Huda Siddiqui said that US and UK had committed a great blunder by going for aggression against a weaker country as they were sucked into a quagmire-like situation.

“Both the countries would have no choice in future but to quit Iraq. Otherwise, their army would have to face disastrous consequences in case the war prolonged.”

He asserted that the war had introduced new imperialism in the world as pointed out frequently by US Foreign Secretary Colin Powell: “We intend to restructure Middle East and Iraq which clearly exposed their evil designs.—PPI