KARACHI, March 6: Some 200 million cases of active TB may arise around the world now and 2020, if new control measures are not taken and as a result, there would be about 35 million deaths.

This was stated by Dr. Rashid A. Chotani, Director, Global Infectious Disease Surveillance and Alert System, Centre for International Emergency, Disaster and Refugee Studies, John Hopkins School of Medicine and Public Health, US.

He was speaking at a seminar organized by the Department of Microbiology, University of Karachi, at its premises on Thursday.

Dr. Chotani said that the annual incidence of new diseases would grow to 11 million.

Dr. Chotani pointed out that due to wide availability of an effective and inexpensive vaccine, polio has been virtually eliminated in much of the world and hopefully Pakistan would also be able to achieve this goal soon.

He was of the view that in 10 developing countries, however, polio continues to infect children, especially those under the age of three.

It was stated that both wealthy industrialised countries and low- income African regions experience epidemics of meningitis, the magnitude is vastly different. Major epidemics occur every five to 10 years in African countries.

Dr. Chotani was also of the view that the spread of infectious diseases results from changes in human behaviour, increased trade and travel and inappropriate use of antibiotics.

He said that 20 well-known diseases, including tuberculosis, malaria and cholera have re-emerged or spread geographically since 1973, often in more virulent and drug-resistant forms.

Dr. Chotani said of the seven biggest killers worldwide, tuberculosis, malaria, Hepatitis and in particular HIV/AIDS continue to surge and are likely to account for the overwhelming majority of deaths from infectious diseases in the developing countries by 2020.

It was suggested that in order to control the infectious diseases, basic research is very important as this leads to diagnosis of the diseases, development of proper and effective drugs, then clinical trials of these new drugs and the development of vaccines to prevent these diseases.

Chairperson of the Department of Microbiology, University of Karachi, Prof. Dr. Shahana Urooj Kazmi, presented the welcome address.—APP