BEIRUT: Nicola Ziadeh has written more books — 42 — than many people have read. So it was no surprise recently that few came to challenge the 95-year-old scholar of the region when he said: “War will come and occupation will follow”.

Ziadeh, whose intellectual authority has been gleamed from a lifetime of careful study that began before Arab states had any boundaries to contest and fight over, was speaking during a lecture at Haigazian University in Beirut on the current Iraqi crisis, “Are we on the eve of a second Sykes-Picot?”

The 1916 agreement between the British Mark Sykes and French George Picot — both diplomats — to carve the region into spheres of influence after World War I was very much on the mind of the professor emeritus in history at the American University of Beirut, as he warned against an “inevitable” US-led war against Iraq and Pentagon designs to redraw the region’s political map.

He insisted that the war was being driven by a US desire to control the region’s energy resources.

“One thing is important for the Western world. Wherever they see it, they will rush to it” he said, before quipping that Lebanon too might be in danger given recent news of plans for exploratory drilling off Lebanese shores. The US will invade Iraq and “then sit on Iraqi oil wells worth some $3 trillion” he said.

“But is this the end? No it’s only the beginning” said Ziadeh, who explained that American designs and Iraqi realities would require a mandate over the country similar to those enjoyed by France and Britain.