KARACHI, Feb 27: Pakistan’s population will be doubled in 33 years if it is allowed to grow at the existing rate of 2.1 per cent.

This was stated by sociologist Dr Arshad Mahmood at a workshop aimed at sensitizing the media about population issues at Karachi Press Club on Thursday morning. The workshop, however, began an hour late because only a handful of newsmen had come to attend the workshop.

In his presentation, Dr Mahmood divided the growth of the population from very old times into four stages. Using a graph showing demographic transition, he said: “During the first stage, which could be called the premodern stage, high birth rates and death rates had fluctuated, resulting in small population growth. It was because there was little access to birth control, many children died in infancy so parents tended to have more children, cultural and religious beliefs, high death rates, especially among children, because of disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene and little medical science.”

In the second stage, he added, which could be termed the stage of urbanization and industrialization, birth rates had remained high, but death rates had fallen rapidly, causing a high population growth.

“The reasons were improvements in medical care, decrease in infant mortality, improvement in sanitation and water supply, quality and quantity of food produced rose, and transport and communications improved the movements of food and medical supplies.”

Dr Mahmood said in the third stage, which was the stage of mature industrialization, birth rates had fallen rapidly while death rates had continued to fall.

“It was because of the fact that access to contraception increased, lower infant mortality rate meant that there was a less need to have a bigger family, industrialization and mechanization meant fewer labourers required, the desire for material possessions took over the desire for large families as wealth increased, equality for women meant that they were able to follow a career path rather than feeling obligated to have a family.”

The sociologist pointed out that in the fourth stage, which could be called post-industrialization stage, both birth rates and death rates remained low, fluctuating with “baby booms” and ‘‘baby busts”. The result was a steady population, he added.

Dr Mahmood said it was sad to note that while the population of developed countries would double in 700 years, Pakistan’s population would double in 33 years.

“In 1950, three years after the creation of Pakistan, the country’s population stood at 33 million. Fifty-three years on, the population of Pakistan has risen to 145.5 million, registering an increase of more than 340 per cent. At present, in terms of population Pakistan ranks at the sixth number, with China, India, the US, Indonesia and Brazil having more population than Pakistan.”

The sociologist said that another demographic feature peculiar to South Asian countries was that their female population is less than that of male population.

“In Pakistan, men constitute 52 per cent of the population while women constitute 48 per cent of the population.”

Dr Mahmood said that government-sponsored efforts of family planning had born fruit over the years. “In the 1950s, the population of Pakistan grew at the rate of 2.45 per cent. In the 1960s, the population growth rate rose to 3.66 per cent. The rise could be attributed to the import of advanced medical facilities from the West. In the 1970s, the population growth rate was 3.05 per cent. However, in the 1980s, the population growth rate came down to 2.61 per cent. At the moment, the population of the country is growing at the rate of 2.1 per cent.”

Saying that the use of contraceptives has risen in Pakistan from 12 per cent in 1991 to 31 per cent in 2002, Dr Mahmood made a comparative detailing the use of contraceptives in the Muslim world. “The contraceptive prevalence rate is highest in Iran at 73 per cent, followed by Turkey (64 per cent), Morocco (58 per cent), Indonesia (57 per cent), Egypt (55 per cent), Bangladesh (49 per cent), Malaysia (48 per cent). The contraceptive prevalence rate is the lowest in Pakistan at 31pc.”

Dr Farooq Khan delivered a lecture on the subject of “Islam and family planning”. KPC president Sabihuddin Ghausi also spoke.