LAHORE, Feb 19: The prime minister’s adviser on finance, Mr. Shaukat Aziz, says the GDP may grow at a higher than the target rate of 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal year.

Talking to newsmen during a visit to the Customs Facilitation Centre at the Lahore Dry Port here on Wednesday, he said it was for the first time in several years that all the fundamental economic indicators had shown a consistent improvement and growth.

“The large-scale manufacturing is growing at 8 per cent as has been indicated by the figures for the first seven months, the profits of banks are substantially up, the textile production has also increased, the electricity consumption has gone up by around 4.50 per cent, and the automobile industry has become pretty much vibrant due to increased car sales,” he said.

Moreover, he said, “we are going to harvest a bumper wheat crop that will provide us enough surplus for export. Furthermore, the revenue collection is ahead of the target for the first seven months of the fiscal year and imports have also increased.”

To a question, he said the Iraq crisis was not likely to leave any negative impact on the economy. However, he said, it would push up the oil prices for the short-term. “But I hope that Opec will increase its output, bringing down the prices. Besides, we’ve a comfortable balance of payments position to allow us to cope with the situation.”

“We are not physically close to Iraq as had been the case with Afghanistan. So I don’t think the (US) war on Iraq would create a problem for us,” the adviser said.

To a question, he ruled out Pakistan seeking another IMF loan after the lapse of the ongoing PRGF facility in 2004. “I am not aware of any offer made by the IMF to provide $1.8 billion (for the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper being finalized by the government). I believe that we would not need an IMF programme in future. Yet it doesn’t mean that we will not borrow. We will keep borrowing for building infrastructure — roads, dams, etc. — and for improving social sector.”

The adviser said the tax system is being automated in order to improve efficiency and collection and plug leakages. He said the customs department had successfully plugged revenue leakages, and improved collection at the Lahore Dry Port through automation. He said the “measures taken by the authorities to improve the system had resulted in considerable reduction of misdeclaration of goods coming mainly from Singapore and Dubai, and under-invoicing by the importers.” He said misdeclaration of the goods was a “legalized” way of smuggling, which was harming the local industry, polluting the environment and robbing the national exchequer.

Mr. Aziz said automation of the tax system would also minimize the human contact between the tax collector and the taxpayer. He said automation of the Lahore Dry Port would yield Rs20 billion in customs duties this year. “It has also reduced the pendancy of rebate claims.”

He said the customs intelligence was also being revamped, and efforts were being made to make it a proper intelligence outfit. He said the customs intelligence would have to keep watch on the people robbing the country of revenue through under-invoicing as well as misdeclaration of the imported goods.