LONDON-WASHINGTON-MOSCOW: US and British officials at the UN headquarters in New York and in embassies across four continents have embarked on one of the biggest diplomatic arm-twisting exercises in years to win support for a UN resolution giving the go-ahead for war against Iraq.

The US and Britain need the backing of nine of the 15 members of the security council.

The resolution authorising military action is expected to be tabled before the security council in a few weeks, according to a security council source.

Only four members of the 15 member security council support war at present — Bulgaria and Spain standing alongside the US and Britain — but the US and Britain expressed confidence on Friday they can convert this over the next few weeks into an overwhelming majority in favour.

A British source predicted an eventual majority of 13, with only Syria and Germany refusing to vote for action.

Economic incentives, as well as diplomatic pressure, are on offer. In manoeuvring over the last few days, the US has:

* finally agreed to a request by Russia, a pivotal member of the security council and an opponent of war, to blacklist three Chechen rebel groups;

* approved an extra US dollars 4.1 million for the resettlement of returnees to Angola, which is on the security council and is opposed to war;

* given an extra US dollars 2.1 million for the care of Liberian refugees. Guinea, a security council member, will be one of the main beneficiaries.

* rejected a request by Pakistan, also a security council member and opponent of the war, to lift immigration restrictions on its nationals but promised “a little more leeway”.

More bargaining behind-closed doors is expected over the next few weeks. A US official on Friday spelt out the hard reality. “We would certainly not remind those countries who receive US aid of that assistance in a meeting when we are discussing an issue like Iraq,” he said. “That would be inappropriate.” However, he added: “Those countries that receive aid from the United States themselves recognise the importance of donor dollars, and don’t need to be reminded.” The US and British governments will only table a resolution once they are certain they have the necessary votes.

Officials in Washington and London are already working on a war draft that will declare Iraq to be in material breach of resolution 1441 passed in November and note that the resolution warned failure to comply would have “serious consequences”.

The draft is not expected to be tabled until after the UN chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, reports to the security council on February 14.

UN diplomats said the diplomatic manoeuvring is for the “middle swing ground” occupied by countries at present opposed to war: Chile, Angola, Guinea, Cameroon, Mexico and Pakistan. They expressed confidence that France, Russia and China, each of which has a veto, will also come round.

The security council source said: “If there was a vote today, you would not get nine votes. In two weeks, unless there is a change in attitude in Iraq, you will get the nine votes.” The UN convention is that a straight majority, in this case eight, would be insufficient; nine votes are the minimum required to pass a resolution.

The poorest are the most vulnerable to US economic muscle. Phyllis Bennis, author of Calling the Shots, said the “Yemeni precedent” — the US stopped aid to Yemen within days of it voting against a resolution on the last Gulf war — was a sobering example for any developing country contemplating opposition.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.