This is our eighth year predicting the Academy Awards, and we have one thing to say about this year’s race: it’s going to be one tough cookie. Unlike last year’s Oscar predictions, where Images on Sunday collectively aced 19 of 22 total predictions, this year’s ballot has a misleading superficiality to it. Closer pondering, particularly when tallying last minute change of trends, invites a lot of second guessing; some of it is hazardous to one’s initial speculation.

A film’s initial reaction fluctuates when people influence preferences and bankable history — especially in certain categories and stages (a Steven Spielberg film has never produced a Best actor in any category; a trend bound to break at least once this year). Common sense predictions can also backfire sometimes (Tony Kushner, writer of Lincoln was bested by first-time writer Chris Terrio of Argo at the Writers Guild Awards; a possible upset can happen at the Oscars).

Argo, a definite (and personal) favourite with a grand overall Award season winning streak, and seven nominations, is set for Best Picture. Lincoln, with 12 nominations will win some (the bank is Daniel Day-Lewis). So will Ang Lee’s The Life of Pi, which has 11 nods — including Best Visual Effects. Les Miserables and Silver Lining Playbook, share eight nods each, and will miss out on many, regardless of their intense marketing campaigns. Zero Dark Thirty, with seven nods, is suffering from exhaustion, because people, after a lot of initial hullaballoo, have realized the film’s inherent problems; however, it will still ace some by our estimates.

The director’s race is divided between Spielberg and Ang Lee. The former is a heavy favourite with his last win in 1998 for Saving Private Ryan. The latter secured a win in 2006 for Brokeback Mountain. Michael Haneke, an Academy favourite, has never won an Oscar (he is set to pick up on Foreign Film for Amour).

Oscillations are more prominent in some of the technical categories (Sound Mixing and Sound Editing). A few ripples are unavoidable in the performing (Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor) and writing nods (Original Screenplay). Like we said, this is going to be one tough cookie.

As a rule, we do not cover the Short Films, however, this year, we were fortunate enough to watch the nominees in the Short Film (Animated) category. Unfortunately we were not so lucky with the Best Documentary nominees, our analysis, therefore, is based on external punditry; the best we can do is cross our fingers and hope for the best.

Regardless of the outcome, tomorrow is going to be fun.

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Unanimous: Argo; Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney Upset: Lincoln; Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy Long Shot: Life of Pi; Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark Actor Unanimous: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) Actress Bet: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) MKJ/FJ: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) Upset: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) Actor (Supporting) Bet: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) MKJ: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) FJ/Upset: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) Long Shot: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) Actress (Supporting) Unanimous: Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) Upset: Sally Field (Lincoln) Long Shot: Helen Hunt (The Sessions) Director Unanimous: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) Upset: Ang Lee (Life of Pi) Screenplay (Original) Bet: Zero Dark Thirty; Mark Boal MKJ/FJ: Django Unchained; Quentin Tarantino Upset: Amour; Michael Haneke Screenplay (Adapted) Unanimous: Lincoln; Tony Kushner Upset: Argo; Chris Terrio Animated Feature Unanimous: Wreck-It Ralph; Rich Moore Upset: Brave; Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman Long Shot: Frankenweenie; Tim Burton Foreign Language Film Unanimous: Amour (Austria) Long Shot: A Royal Affair (Denmark) Cinematography Bet: Life of Pi; Claudio Miranda MKJ/FJ: Skyfall; Roger Deakins Editing Bet: Argo; William Goldenberg FJ/MKJ: Zero Dark Thirty; William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor Production Design Bet/FJ: Anna Karenina; Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer MKJ: Life of Pi; David Gropman, Anna Pinnock Upset: Les Misérables; Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson Long Shot: Lincoln: Rick Carter, Jim Erickson Costume Design Unanimous: Anna Karenina; Jacqueline Durran Upset: Les Misérables; Paco Delgado Long Shots: Lincoln; Joanna Johnston and Mirror Mirror; Eiko Ishioka Make-up & Hairstyling Bet: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane MKJ: Les Misérables; Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell FJ: Hitchcock; Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samuel Original Score Unanimous: Life of Pi; Mychael Danna Upset: Lincoln; John Williams Original Song Unanimous: Skyfall (Skyfall); Adele, Paul Epworth Upset: Pi’s Lullaby (Life of Pi); Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree Long Shot: Suddenly (Les Misérables); Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer Sound Mixing Bet: Les Misérables; Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes MKJ: Life of Pi; Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin FJ: Skyfall; Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson Sound Editing Bet: Zero Dark Thirty; Paul N.J. Ottosson MKJ: Life of Pi; Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton FJ: Skyfall; Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker Upset: Argo; Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn Visual Effects Unanimous: Life of Pi; Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott (Very) Long Shot: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White Documentary (As we were not able to see the documentaries this year, our prediction is limited to trending speculation) Bet: Searching for Sugar Man; Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn Upset: How to Survive a Plague; David France, Howard Gertler Short Film (Animated) Unanimous: Paperman; John Kahrs Upset: Adam and Dog; Minkyu Lee Long Shot: The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare; David Silverman.