VIENNA: The EU seems to think its “Austrian problem” is over with the decimation of the populist right in Sunday’s general elections.

But the sighs of relief may be premature. A renewed conservative-rightist coalition could have explosive potential for the EU enlargement or even self-destruct again within a year.

Up till Sunday, many European commentators saw the constant veto threats of Joerg Haider’s right-wing Freedom Party (FP) as one of the prospective main obstacles to enlarging the EU in 2004.

Now the FP has been cut down to about one-third its previous size in the most drastic election defeat in modern Austria. But it has not disappeared.

Headlines on Monday hailed the all-conquering Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel and his conservative People’s Party (VP), winning 42.3 per cent and regaining number one position in Austria from the Social Democrats (SP) after three and a half decades.

So strong was the VP that it could go into coalition with any of the other three parties. But the Greens option was remote due to personal and political differences. The Social Democrats (SP), elections losers even though they gained nearly four per cent for 36.9, said in a first reaction they would stay in opposition.

The initial first option therefore appeared a renewal of the coalition of VP and the Freedom Party — even with the FP a shadow of its former self, down from 26.9 per cent to 10.2.

Early this year the VP-FP coalition nearly fell over the EU enlargement issue. The FP organized a petition against the Czech nuclear power station at Temelin and linked the demand for its closure with an EU veto threat.

Schuessel, often silent in the face of FP provocation, drew the line. The EU enlargement was a cornerstone of government policy, and he would not tolerate it being threatened. After a standoff of several days, the two sides patched up their quarrel.

Little has changed in the FP. Joerg Haider and his hardline faction critical of the EU hold the reins even more than ten months ago. The party may be much smaller, but it could still tip a coalition if allowed to join one again.

Schuessel is well aware he faces a dilemma. On election night, he openly told interim FP leader Herbert Haupt that the problem with the FP was its leader’s decisions could any time be overturned by the hardliners.

And they continue to make it clear that they will not allow the Czech Republic into the EU unless it closes Temelin and abolishes the postwar Benes Decrees on the expulsion of the Sudeten Germans from Czechoslovakia.

The biggest VP election triumph in history, with a gain of 15.4 per cent, will be little avail to Schuessel if his government collapses over the EU enlargement issue next year.

His alternative now would be to join with the Social Democrats. The EU problem would disappear as the SP is just as much in favour of the enlargement as Schuessel’s own party.

Powerful business and media interests are already pressing for a “grand coalition” of VP and SP in the interests of stability. But it also has many opponents, pointing out that similar coalitions in the past, with their overwhelming majorities, were ponderous, paternalistic, and incapable of reforms.

Schuessel himself would be forced to make concessions he might not like. Instead of governing virtually alone with a tiny FP, he would have a substantial junior partner only five per cent weaker than himself.

Holding the head of government’s office, and that of Finance Minister in the person of “independent” Karl-Heinz Grasser, he would almost certainly be obliged to give up the other key post of foreign minister.

The loser in that case would be the VP’s Benita Ferrero-Waldner, who would have to make way for Social Democrat candidate Wolfgang Petritsch. That would cause no damage abroad, as Petritsch is well known as one of Austria’s foremost international diplomats and Balkans experts.—dpa