HAVING bid goodbye to a tumultuous 2011, Pakistanis will certainly be hoping for a less traumatic 2012. But that will depend on certain political, security and international factors which will shape the country's future in the near-term. Start with domestic politics. From Senate elections to perhaps a general election, the year ahead offers real opportunities to nudge the transition to democracy ahead. Equally, the civil-military imbalance and fraught relations between the political government and the Supreme Court could stamp out the nascent democratic process yet again. Much will depend on how the PPP-led government responds to threats, real and perceived, and the strategy it adopts.

The run-up to the Senate election in March was always expected to be a tumultuous period but the PPP has not helped its case with shockingly poor responses to political crises. Be it the handling of the 'memogate' affair or working to ensure that a more aggressive PML-N doesn't result in a political opposition that is, inadvertently or not, undermining the democratic process, the PPP brain trust has been found wanting in every regard. It seems that the party's default response is to rely for its survival on the constitutional impregnability of the president and the political difficultly of voting out the present government in the National Assembly. But by concentrating on the numbers game, the federal government has allowed political crises to snowball into a state of near paralysis for the nation. From handling relations with the military that are on the verge of meltdown to keeping an increasingly active SC from tying the government into knots to responding to the demand from the political opposition for early elections, the government will need a better game plan if 2012 is to be the year in which the stage is set for a smooth transition from one parliament and set of provincial assemblies to the next.

On the economic front, the challenge will perhaps be even more difficult. Experts warn that by the second half of the year the country could be in the grip of a full-blown economic crisis if current trends continue. Whether Pakistan is forced to return to the IMF in a state of default or can salvage its fiscal position will depend on several factors: the government's willingness to take certain immediate and painful steps to rein in the budget deficit; the continuation of foreign inflows that keep pressures on the rupee from exploding; and, crucial to it all, the government's ability to resist the temptation to indulge in reckless election-year fiscal and economic policies in a patronage-driven political system. Thus far, there is little reason to believe the federal government has the inclination or the ability to steer the economy out of crisis. The economic mismanagement also has repercussions for national stability: from law and order issues created by protests and riots over gas and electricity shortages to the political crisis fanned by a security establishment under the guise of concern for the national economic well-being.

On the external front, relations with US and India and the so-called 'endgame' in Afghanistan will be key. With the US, the hope is for a scaled-down relationship minus the crises. Much will depend on whether the US and Pakistan come closer on what the 'end state' in Afghanistan ought to be once the US/Isaf combat missions wind down in 2014. A defiant, emotional response to an increasingly hostile US will only compound Pakistan's problems. For now, the Pakistani attempt to redefine the relationship with the US has been met with 'strategic patience' from the US. Push too hard and that patience may run out. With India, bold steps such as redefining the trading relationship could be pushed through, but with the civilians and the military at odds domestically and elections on the cards, can the big issues be tackled in 2012?

For every positive in Pakistan — the public rejecting military intervention in favour of the democratic process and politicians of every hue apologising to the Baloch and recognising the problems there, for example — there is a negative — the PTI's lack of a policy platform and the on-going campaign of extra-judicial killings in Balochistan. Perhaps the best that can be hoped from 2012 is for fresh pain to be avoided and for the healing process to begin.