ANKARA: Turkey’s secular establishment is bracing itself for sweeping changes as it became clear that a moderate Islamic party under threat of closure would win a landslide election victory and an outright majority in the national assembly.

If the Justice and Development party (AKP) — whose leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was disqualified as a candidate — takes more than 276 seats it will be the first time any Islamic party has come to power on its own since the foundation of the Turkish republic in 1923.

The size of the popular mandate, however, may only add to suspicions among traditional parties and the military establishment that the AKP is hiding its true Islamist agenda and intends to undermine the secular state.

Changes to the country’s constitution can be passed by the assembly — without the need for a referendum — if supporters muster 360 votes, around two-thirds of deputies.

The last Islamist-led coalition government, which had a far smaller majority, was forced out of office by Turkey’s generals in 1997. The army has so far not commented on the election.

Early projections suggested the AKP would take as much as 35 per cent of the popular vote, giving it as many as 350 deputies in the 550-seat chamber. Only one other party, the Republican People’s party (CHP), was expected to poll above the 10 per cent threshold and therefore be entitled to elect deputies. Early returns said the CHP would win more than 19 per cent of the vote.

AKP politicians, who deny it is a religiously motivated party and describe themselves as “conservative democrats”, have sought to reassure Turkey’s European and American allies that they remain pro-western, committed to Nato and pushing forward the country’s application for membership of the EU.

Erdogan, speaking in Istanbul on Sunday as news of his party’s success came through, said: “AKP is ready to take responsibility to build up the political will to accelerate the European Union entry process and to strengthen the integration of our economy with the world economy and the implementation of the economic programme.”

All three outgoing governing parties were projected to lose heavily in a popular backlash against incumbent politicians who have presided over Turkey’s sharpest economic downturn for decades. Graduate unemployment for the under 30s, for example, is estimated to be as high as 30 per cent.

The massive AKP protest vote reflects growing resentment of what seemed to be a small club of centrist politicians who succeeded in hanging on to power for decades by deft coalition manoeuvrings.

Support for the AKP appeared to snowball in recent days. The last published opinion polls, taken a week before the election, put the AKP on around 30 per cent with the Republican People’s party at just under 20 per cent.

As the scale of the AKP’s victory became apparent, attention shifted rapidly to the awkward constitutional problem of who will become Turkey’s next prime minister. Erdogan cannot lead the country because the constitution requires that the prime minister is an elected deputy.

The elections board banned him from standing as a candidate because of a jail sentence he served in 1999 for publicly reading a poem that a court said was anti-secular.

A prosecutor is also trying to close the AKP down, saying that Erdogan cannot lead the party because of that sentence.

Last week the president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, insisted he would choose which deputy to appoint. But AKP politicians and Erdogan have said they will choose their leader, possibly Abdullah Gul, the AKP’s deputy chairman.

Even if the handover goes smoothly, the outgoing government, led by the veteran Bulent Ecevit, who has been prime minister five times, is likely to remain in office for several weeks. The supreme election board may not confirm the final result until November 10 and the Turkish grand national assembly will not be convened for a further five days.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.