ISTANBUL: Turks seem set to vote present rulers out in early national elections being held this Sunday.

Turks are deeply worried by the economic crisis and a continuing snub to Turkey’s attempts at full membership of the European Union (EU). Prospects of US-led military action against Iraq at their doorstep is adding to the political gloom.

Some 40 million voters in a population of 70 million will elect a new Parliament 18 months ahead of the due date following the collapse of the three-party coalition led by veteran Bulent Ecevit of the Democratic Left Party.

The refusal by the 77-year-old Ecevit to step down despite failing health broke up his coalition of strange bedfellows that included the pro-EU Motherland Party and the extreme right National Movement which opposes the reforms required for EU membership.

There are questions now whether any of these three parties could clear the 10 per cent hurdle necessary to enter Parliament. Two or possibly three others are forging ahead in a crowded field of 18 parties.

Analysts expect a strong showing by the Justice and Development Party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a charismatic former mayor of Istanbul. His party broke from the traditional Islamist party and Erdogan now projects himself as a leader balancing Western secularism with Islamic roots.

But Erdogan is ineligible to become an MP or lead a government on account of a poem he read four years ago that challenged the Constitution. His party too faces a ban.

The EU may consider the rise of his party as another sign that Turkey is not ready for full EU membership. But Erdogan has told Western ambassadors that he is pro-EU, and sees no conflict between a secular Western lifestyle and his wife wearing a headscarf. EU governments have criticised the ban on him and called it another example of insufficient human rights.

A second party certain to do well is the social-democrat Peoples’ Republican Party. It just missed the 10 per cent barrier in the last election but has now regrouped. Its leaders include Kemal Dervis, a former World Bank vice-president recruited by the government to take charge of a collapsing economy. He used his position to secure a 16 billion dollar rescue package from the IMF.

A coalition between these two parties cannot be ruled out, analysts say. It would bring again a balance between the right and the left that is likely to please the EU.

European leaders consider the outcome of the elections crucial to Turkey’s bid to obtain a date for accession talks at the EU Summit in Copenhagen in December. Turkey’s EU aspirations would be doomed if a distinctly anti-EU party were to win.

Many Turks say they are fed up with traditional politicians long on campaign promises and short on delivery once in power. They fill town squares to cheer 43-year-old media magnate Cem Uzan and his two-month-old Youth Party. Cem Uzan wears short-sleeves, and delivers fiery speeches promising a total break with the past.

“I could vote for him,” says Kemal Akkaya, a 40-year-old carpenter who has usually voted for secular right-wing parties.

“He too makes promises he cannot keep, but at least he is different.” With the help of a little propaganda portrayed as news through his media outlets, Uzan is seen as a strong contender to clear the minimum-vote hurdle.

Uzan tells voters they must choose between the IMF and Turkey. An estimated two million workers were laid off during the recent financial crisis. Schoolteachers double as taxi drivers at night to make ends meet. A middle-level civil servant earns no more than 500 dollars a month in a country where petroleum and electricity costs equal those in Europe.

The threat of war in Iraq, and its cost to Turkey, is also looming over the elections. Turkey estimates that it lost more than 40 billion dollars from the 1991 Gulf War as its once booming trade with neighbours collapsed under the United Nations embargo. Another war could deal a severe blow to one sector that is flourishing — tourism (15 million arrivals a year).

Candidates are careful in expressing anti-war feelings. Turkey needs the US as an alternative to the ambivalent EU. The US would need Turkey’s bases, if not more, in a war on Iraq.

The powerful military plays a watchful role, even if it is not active in politics. It has taken no view on the rise of Erdogan, though it chased former pro-Islamic prime minister Necbettin Erbakan from power at a time when Erdogan was a party member.

The elections will also test the strength of DEHAP, a party sympathetic to the Kurdish minority. Analysts say it should come close to the 10 per cent limit. The very fact that it is participating is seen as a sign of some liberalisation. The party had to overcome several legal challenges before it could contest the election.

Turks are seeing this election as a turning point between two centuries, two generations, and between an old and new ruling class. They are still hoping for a new leader to reconcile their Western ambitions with non-western lifestyles and traditions.—Dawn/InterPress News Service.