18389    7/4/2004 10:02    04ABUDHABI2194    Embassy Abu Dhabi    SECRET    04ABUDHABI1157|04ABUDHABI2113    "null Diana T Fritz  02/06/2007 05:25:40 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Search Results

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SECRET

SIPDIS TELEGRAM                                            July 04, 2004

To:       No Action Addressee

Action:   Unknown

From:     AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI (ABU DHABI 2194 - UNKNOWN)

TAGS:     PREL, MASS, MARR, MOPS

Captions: None

Subject:  DEPUTY CENTCOM COMMANDER DISCUSSES REGIONAL SITUATION WITH UAE ARMED FORCES DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF

Ref:      None _________________________________________________________________ S E C R E T        ABU DHABI 02194

SIPDIS CXABU: ACTION: POL INFO:   RSO AMB ECON DCM P/M DAO USLO

DISSEMINATION: POL CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: CDA:RAALBRIGHT DRAFTED: POL:JFMAYBURY CLEARED: USLO:MSCHWAN

VZCZCADI864 OO RUEHC RUCAACC RUEAHQA RUEKJCS RUEOMFD RUEAHQA RUCNRAQ RHEHNSC RUEAIIA RHEFDIA RUEKJCS RUCJACC RUCQSOC RHMFISS RHRMDAB RHMFISS DE RUEHAD #2194/01 1861002 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 041002Z JUL 04 FM AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4959 INFO RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE RUCAACC/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RUEAHQA/HQ USAF WASHINGTON DC//CSAF/SECAF// RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC//OSD/NESA/ISA// RUEOMFD/USCENTAF SHAW AFB SC//CC// RUEAHQA/OSAF WASHDC//IA/IAR// RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J2// RUCJACC/USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL//CCJ2/CCJ4/CCJ5// RUCQSOC/USCINCSOC MACDILL AFB FL RHMFISS/COMUSCENTAF SHAW AFB SC RHRMDAB/COMUSNAVCENT //N2// RHMFISS/HQ COALITION PROVISIONAL AUTH BAGHDAD"    "S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 002194

SIPDIS

SECAF FOR DR ROCHE, CSAF FOR GENERALS JUMPER AND MOSELEY AND USCENTAF FOR LTG BUCHANAN STATE FOR D, PM, NEA/NGA, NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2014 TAGS: PREL, MASS, MARR, MOPS, IZ, SA, PK, YM, TC SUBJECT: DEPUTY CENTCOM COMMANDER DISCUSSES REGIONAL SITUATION WITH UAE ARMED FORCES DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF

Ref: (A) Abu Dhabi 2113 (B) Abu Dhabi 1157

Classified by Richard A. Albright, Charge d'Affaires, a.i., reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

1. (S) Summary: CENTCOM Deputy Commander Lieutenant General Lance Smith on June 28 discussed security and the transition to sovereignty in Iraq, the deteriorating situation in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan's efforts to combat foreign fighters, and the UAE's request for an armed Predator, with UAE Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Staff Major General Hamad Thani Al-Rumaithy in Abu Dhabi.  The two sides also agreed to meet later this summer to review UAE concerns with the proposed Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) Shipboarding Agreement.  End Summary.

2. (U) The Charge, USLO Deputy, and Polchief (notetaker) attended.  Hamad Thani was accompanied by GHQ Special Advisor Jack McGuinness.

Iraq ----

3. (S) In a broad review of developments in Iraq, Hamad Thani and Smith discussed the new Iraqi leadership's capabilities, ongoing security problems, and the influence of foreign fighters. Iraqis can be unpredictable, making it difficult for outsiders to know what will happen next, Hamad Thani said.  He agreed with Smith that the new Iraqi president and prime minister have strong qualities that should allow them to govern during the six-month interim period leading up to the elections.  Hamad Thani made the point that it will be important to see the positive impact of sovereign governance and decision-making on the Iraqi street.  ""The world community wants to see something positive in Iraq,"" he said.

4. (S) Smith said the US would appreciate the UAE's continued vocal support for the new Iraq. ""We all have to make sure it's a successful government.""   Smith said the US would like to see an Iraq that cooperates with its neighbors, and refrains from developing or using Weapons of Mass Destruction.  He noted that Iraq has considerable natural wealth, not to mention $18 billion of U.S. aid.  ""If they (Iraqis) can use that for reconstruction and get moving, we will leave and they will have a great future.""

5. (S) Hamad Thani thanked the U.S. for what it is doing in Iraq and said that all are looking forward to a stable region.  He said there had been seven wars fought in the region since 1948. The Arab-Israeli conflict had generated more instability, and he viewed that as the greatest source of the region's problems.  There is a need for a gradual transition period, he said.  Hamad Thani said it took him 10 years to fully accept that Israelis and Palestinians had to co-exist. ""People are not sane.  We have had enough wars; we need to get the problem solved as the world is getting smaller.""  He said there are many global issues, such as pollution, that require our attention as well.

6. (S) Smith said that despite the unacceptable levels of violence, there were some encouraging developments on the security front.  The Iraqi forces are in the process of establishing a complete chain of command from the field to the CHOD.  Iraq was bringing back members of the old armed forces (those without blood on their hands) to lend their experience to the new security forces, changes that Hamad Thani supported. Smith cited the new Iraqi National Guard that will report to a chain of command that is entirely Iraqi.

7. (S) Hamad Thani asked Smith what role he thought Moqtada Al-Sadr might play.  Smith responded that the coalition and the Iraqi Security Forces are working to neutralize Sadr's Militia and that we understand that Sadr will continue to create problems if he is not included in the political process.  Hamad Thani was skeptical that Sadr's militia would hand in their weapons.  Hamad Thani also inquired about whom might be supporting militant Mussab Al-Zarqawi. Smith replied that Zarqawi was his own man with his own network and ideas, likely not working directly for Osama bin Laden.  However, he has recruited followers of Ansar-al-Islam and has been able to count on the cooperation of former Saddam elements.  Zarqawi brings leadership to disparate elements in the region, Smith said. Smith said countering this insurgency is difficult because there are so many weapons in Iraq.  Hamad Thani stated that many of the weapons seized in the Straits of Hormuz had originated in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia ------------

8. (S) Hamad Thani said he shared Smith's concern about Saudi Arabia's battle against militant extremists.  The phenomenon, he said, will take time to uproot.   He was critical of the Saudis for not listening to warnings about extremist violence, and for acting late to prevent the violence.  Hamad Thani said the UAEG believes that if the Saudi regime were to collapse, the repercussions for the region would be enormous. Smith questioned whether Bahrain and Kuwait might be waiting too long to respond to their respective extremist problems, but Hamad Thani said he was not as worried about Bahrain.

Pakistan --------

9. (S) Both sides agreed about the strategic importance of Pakistan in the region and acknowledged President Musharraf's uphill struggle to modernize Pakistani society.  Hamad Thani credited Pakistan's ability to stave off extremism to Musharraf's strong leadership, his background as a soldier, and the strong tradition of his armed forces.  He said that Western democracy will not work in Pakistan.  The Pakistanis need a strong leader, but not a criminal like Saddam Hussein.  Hamad Thani noted the difficulties Musharraf and the central government face in regions, such as Balushistan and the northwest region along the Pakistan- Afghanistan border, where they have no authority. Smith said Musharraf is having an effect combating foreign fighters like Al-Qaida in Pakistan, and added that Musharraf will continue engaging those fighters with or without the cooperation of Pakistan's tribal leaders. Predator -------- 10. (S) Hamad Thani and Smith reviewed the discussion between Abu Dhabi Deputy Crown Prince and UAE Armed Forces Chief of Staff Shaykh Mohamed bin Zayed (MbZ) had had with Brigadier General Yaggi, Director of Regional Affairs for the Deputy Under Secretary of the Air Force for International Affairs, a day earlier (ref A) on the UAE's request for an armed Predator.  Hamad Thani said that MbZ had told him he was baffled that the USG could sell F-16 Block 60s to the UAE and refuse to release an armed Predator.  ""This issue is disappointing to the UAE, though we understand the circumstances,"" he said.  He said the UAE is in the process of studying other UAV options, including producing its own (in partnership with foreign companies), although he acknowledged that the Predator's capability is superior.  Smith said he would convey the UAEG's views.

PSI Shipboarding Agreement --------------------------

11. (C) Hamad Thani provided an update on the status of his government's review of a proposed PSI Shipboarding Agreement, which Post had raised with MbZ last April (ref B).  He said that a defense committee at the armed forces GHQ had been studying the agreement and had some concerns, but no objections.  One concern their military lawyers had was whether the U.S. could board a UAE-flagged vessel after a certain interval of time without obtaining the UAEG's approval in advance.  The Charge said the agreement addresses the consultation process. Hamad Thani acknowledged that when two countries reach the level of cooperation that the U.S. and the UAE enjoy, there are situations where it may be necessary to take immediate action when time is of the essence.

12. (C) Hamad Thani said the Ministries of Justice and Foreign Affairs are reviewing the PSI agreement as well.  It was agreed that Post would follow up with the GHQ's point person on the PSI Shipboarding Agreement after he returns to the country in mid-July.  Hamad Thani said that MbZ had told him to do his best to make the agreement work.  ""Eventually, all these agreements must comply with international law,"" he said.  It is important that the two sides work out the legal details.

13. (U) This message was cleared by Lt Gen Smith.

14. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. ALBRIGHT "