GAZA: US calls for Yasser Arafat’s removal have prompted even Palestinians critical of their leader to rally behind him and could discourage some potential rivals from posing a challenge, political analysts said on Thursday.

President George W. Bush urged Palestinians to remove their president and demanded an overhaul of his Palestinian Authority in a speech last month, saying the Authority had failed under his leadership to halt suicide bombings against Israelis.

Although many Palestinians are disappointed by Arafat’s failure to improve their lives, and by allegations of corruption in the Palestinian Authority, they balk at doing anything that smacks of taking orders from the United States.

Even before Bush’s speech, Arafat would have been widely expected to secure re-election. Two days after the speech Arafat called presidential and legislative elections for early January 2003.

“You will not find anyone that now says (Arafat must resign),” said Palestinian political analyst Hassan al-Kashif. “Even those most critical of Arafat will not do that.”

Kashif said many Palestinians regarded Bush’s speech setting out a vision of Middle East peace as interference in internal Palestinian affairs.

The US intervention had turned Arafat’s future into a question of national honour, he said, discouraging people from casting a vote that could be seen as bowing to US pressure.

Mohammed Dahlan, a former Palestinian security chief who has often been mentioned as a potential successor to Arafat, said in an interview published this week that he was muting his own criticism of the president and rallying to Arafat’s side.

“I have huge criticisms of (Arafat) but when Bush and (Israeli Prime Minister) Ariel Sharon say they want to change Arafat, I become the head of his re-election committee,” Dahlan told Britain’s newspaper The Times.

Potential challengers could now be more reluctant than ever to stand against Arafat because they might be seen by ordinary Palestinians as tools for implementing the policies of the United States and Israel, some analysts said.

“Israel does not want an alternative to Arafat. They want a collaborator,” said one commentator, Mustafa al-Barghouthi.

RELATIONS “POISONED”: Although most Palestinians are not expected to vote against Arafat at the polls, Israeli political analyst Gerald Steinberg questioned whether Palestinian public opinion was monolithic.

“It is not true to say that all Palestinians agree on one thing. Simply we do not know because people do not speak openly now,” he said.

So far only Abdel-Sattar Qassem, a prominent academic, has said he will challenge Arafat, elected president in the first Palestinian poll in 1996. A Palestinian cabinet minister said days ago he also expected Arafat to stand for re-election.

Palestinian Authority officials have responded to Bush’s speech by saying they will not be dictated to although, under international pressure, Arafat has called elections and pledged reforms.

“There is no doubt that the last Bush speech has poisoned the Palestinian-American relationship,” said Palestinian cabinet minister Imad al-Falouji, calling the address and follow-up remarks by US officials a “declaration of war” against Arafat.

Barghouthi said many Palestinians believed the United States had relinquished its claim to be an honest broker in Middle East peacemaking and that its policy was being held hostage by its ally Israel.

But Steinberg said the United States felt it had no option but to voice its frustration with Arafat after repeated attempts to end 21 months of Israeli-Palestinian violence failed.

“They tried to work with him and they tried to work around him but all attempts failed,” Steinberg said.

Sharon made clear in recent talks with Bush at the White House that peacemaking with the Palestinians would be possible only when Arafat was no longer in office.

FEARS: Ordinary Palestinians fear Israel will keep seven West Bank cities under occupation as the presidential election approaches and that it could intensify military strikes on the Gaza Strip until the day of the election to put pressure on voters.

“I am afraid the people will have to vote beside Israeli tanks,” said Hassan Hanoud, a mechanic from Gaza.

“We will then have to choose to stick to Arafat and face their curse and threats, or to surrender,” he added. “Arafat would represent national dignity then.”

Palestinians acknowledge they are far from satisfied with Arafat, but refuse to do anything at the behest of Israel or the United States.

“We cannot slaughter him with an Israeli knife,” said a taxi driver, Aziz. “Maybe he should step down and maybe all the other faces should change, but we cannot accept that under the presence of tanks or under pressure.”

Mohammad Khaled, 25, shared this view.

“Look at Iraq. Were the Americans able to change Saddam Hussein? No. Did the Iraqis let their president down? No,” he said. “It might be a great risk (backing Arafat) but Bush gave us no choice.”

Arafat faces a tough task trying to carry out reforms that satisfy the United States, but not appear to be simply acting at Washington’s beck and call.

“We think Arafat will carry out some of the things he was asked to do but certainly we do not expect him to concede any of our rights,” said Salim Ghali, a tailor.—Reuters