ISLAMABAD, Oct 31: Heavy influx of Afghan refugees could cause major changes in population distribution, labour force, infrastructure, social services, infact in the whole society.

These fears were expressed at the annual population research conference at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (Pims) on Wednesday.

The 3-day conference has been organized by the Population Association of Pakistan (PAP). The theme of the conference is Pakistan’s population stabilization prospects.

This is a major development which will have to be monitored and studied urgently and continuously, speakers at the conference opined.

Tariq Janjua, Secretary Population Welfare Ministry disclosed that Pakistan’s population had swelled to 142 million due to the highest growth rate among the developing countries.

Scholars from Pakistan and abroad will present 50 research papers in ten technical sessions and one side session.

He said fertility rate was still just under 5, while the government had set long-term objectives to reduce population growth rate to 1.9 per cent per annum in 2004 and to 1.3 per cent per annum by the year 2023.

The goals also suggested reducing fertility through enhanced voluntary contraceptive adoption to 2.1 births per women by 2023 and ensure a reduction in population momentum through late marriages and birth spacing patterns.

The total fertility rate has been brought down from 5.95 in 1984 to 4.77 in 2001 and the contraceptive prevalence rate has increased from 14 per cent to 28 per cent during the same period with 45 per cent in some urban areas.

The GDP growth rate has been reduced to below 3 per cent from 6 per cent during 1980s, due to poor economic policies and bad investments. He said population under poverty line has doubled in the last 14 years.

He warned that rapid growth had contributed to environmental degradation and depletion of natural resources especially water.

President PAP, Dr M S Jillani feared that Pakistan would have to carry the burden of about 5 million Afghan refugees due to aerial attacks on Afghanistan.

Even if the refugees were assisted by international and bi- lateral sources, their impact on infrastructure and economic and social aspects of Pakistan could not be underestimated. Their social behaviour could also burden fertility, mortality and spatial mobility.

A second development could be the gradual return of expatriates living abroad and therefore demanded immediate attention of the government.

APP ADDS: Dr Arif Hasan, chairman, Orangi Pilot Project said population stabilization required development of a culture compatible with its concept and technical and social inputs that go with it.