DUBAI: The beginning of the end to the current phase of the Arab-Israeli stalemate appears bright that now the siege on Palestinian President Yasser Arafat has been lifted, but the way forward remains uncertain, long and full of roadblocks.

Palestinian and Israeli political observers say that despite this “breakthrough” and new attempts for dialogue by the United States and Saudi Arabia, there is little hope of a peace deal while Arafat and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon are at the helm of their governments.

This is because of their decades-old animosity, which has only turned worse with the latest round of events. Palestinian political analyst Ghassan Al Khatib was quoted in the UAE’s “The Gulf Today” as saying: “After all that Sharon has done, the Palestinians have more reason to resume resistance. Sharon’s position has remained the same and I don’t think Arafat’s positions are going to change.”

Former Palestinian negotiator Ahmad Samih Khalidi argues that Sharon is taking things back to 1948. “The prospect of a two-state solution has faded - Israel and the Palestinians are now digging in for all-out existential war,” he told the UAE’s “Khaleej Times”.

Still, the latest “breakthrough” evolving from a US-Saudi strategy toward a long-term political settlement comprises several measures. It seeks to have Arab pressure on Arafat to reign in radical elements at yet-to-be-finalized talks in Cairo, to extend international supervision in the occupied territories and, prospectively, to convene a regional summit, which would include Israel, in the coming months.

A crucial next stage is Sharon’s visit to Washington during the second week of May. But already, differences are emerging about which of the plans floating around is real.

While Washington says it has received from Riyadh an eight-point peace plan last week, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mussa said in Dubai this week that the Saudi-inspired and League-cleared Arab peace plan will remain the basis for a long-term solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Joseph Samaha, editor of the Beirut-based daily “As Safir”, said on Thursday that the Washington-Riyadh agreement was not about reining in Israel’s military aggression, but about patching up relations between the US and its Arab allies.

Arafat is not really a free man after he emerged from his Ramallah compound, but more like a “convict on parole”, Samaha says, adding that he is effectively being given a “last chance” to comply with an agenda that will be presented to him by the United States and Israel.

Bishara Nassar of the Saudi-run, pan-Arab daily “Al Hayat”, added: “The difficulties awaiting Arafat are tougher than those that attended his siege.”

But just how hard a nut Israel is to crack has been proven by its decision not to allow a UN fact-finding mission to inquire into the Jenin killings by Israeli forces laying siege to the town last month. Adding a further challenge, Sharon has said that he cannot guarantee Arafat’s return if he went abroad.

Israel’s actions show that it can thumb its nose up at international criticism - and get away with it, analysts say. “If the world wanted any more evidence that something is seriously wrong in the way the international community deals with the Middle East problem, Israel has offered it in the form of telling the UN to throw its resolutions into the sea,” P V Vivekanand, editor of a UAE daily, said in an interview. “It is a case of six million dictating terms over six billion,” he argued.

“If Israel can block a UN mission and defy a Security Council resolution, why should Iraq let weapons inspectors in?” asked Abdul Bari Atwan, editor of the “Al Quds” newspaper in London told an Arab media summit in Dubai this week. “It appears Israel has forcibly joined the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, and now has the veto power,” said the Saudi newspaper “Al Watan” on Thursday.

Many say the best approach would be to ensure US engagement in the region, while the Arabs consolidate that involvement by dangling the threat of the oil weapon and withdrawal of its $750 billion investments around the world, apart from inducing the fear of hurting American interests in the region.

The Palestinian National Authority’s task of rebuilding its institutions from the rubble and regaining the shape of a government is a challenge in itself. —Dawn/InterPress Service.