MADRID: A massive increase in the elderly population of developing countries threatens to catch governments and aid agencies unprepared and bring suffering to millions of people, according to a report by the HelpAge International charity.

The report, which comes a week before a UN conference here on aging, highlights dramatic global changes over the next few decades. The number of over-60s will triple, adding 1.4 billion to the current 600 million, to account for one in five people on the planet by 2050.

Most of that increase will come in developing countries that have little money and minimal health and social services to support the elderly. The UN conference, the first of its kind for 20 years, must produce a radical rethink in the way governments, international bodies and charities plan for the future needs of these countries, according to the British-based charity.

Western countries are already coming to terms with aging populations. Poorer nations, where most of the world’s people live, have yet to confront the problem. In less than 30 years’ time, three quarters of the world’s older population will be in developing countries, Asia and South America leading the way.

“The conventional idea of a pyramid age structure, where a majority of economically active younger people are supporting a much smaller apex of older people is vanishing,” explained Paul Cann, the international director of Britain’s Help the Aged. “Increased life expectancy is a good thing - unless it means increased disability, discomfort and depression. So the ‘demographic time bomb’ could be a massive problem or a real opportunity,” he said.

While Britain worries about how to pay pensions in the future, these are only available to a small minority in the developing world. Only 10 per cent of the developing world’s elderly have access to some form of social security. In some African countries, where AIDS is decimating the younger adult population, the elderly are becoming increasingly crucial as child-carers and breadwinners.

Part of the solution to the aging problem lies in tapping the potential of the elderly themselves, according to the report. “They haven’t survived without knowing a thing or two. They have a lot of knowledge and resources,” said Cann.

At the top of the new aging phenomenon are what the director of the UN’s population division, Joseph Chamie, has called the ”longevity millionaires”. These are the people who will live for a million hours, or until the age of 114. —Dawn/The Guardian News Service.