LONDON, Jan 14: A new El Nino, the periodic warming of the surface of the Pacific ocean that can trigger severe worldwide weather and environmental disasters, has been observed building up by a US government agency.

The phenomenon brought droughts and floods, causing thousands of deaths and serious malnutrition, across Latin America, southern Africa and the Pacific region during its last appearance in 1997-98.

Some 230 million people lost their homes in China, while Hurricane Mitch devastated Honduras. The phenomenon also caused serious delays to the monsoon in India and severe flooding in Bangladesh.

Scientists believe that the small rise in temperature in the Indian and Pacific oceans was enough to also provoke a severe cold wave in Europe in October 1998 and a crippling ice storm in the southern US.

Other phenomena observed included forest fires in Indonesia, Brazil, Central America and Florida, and floods in California and Mexico. More than 15 per cent of the world’s coral reefs were killed and the global tourism industry was hit.

National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) experts say it is too early to forecast the severity of this El Nino.

Scientists have predicted that El Ninos will become more frequent and more severe as the world warms.

The Noaa warning is backed up by the enhanced cloudiness and precipitation recorded recently over the equatorial central Pacific for the first time since the 1997-98 episode.

“The magnitude of an El Nino determines the severity of its impacts,” said Vernon Kousky, Noaa climate specialist. “At this point, it is too early to predict if this El Nino might develop along the same lines as the 1997-98 episode, or be weaker.

“The first region on the globe to experience El Nino’s impacts would be in the tropical Pacific,” he added. “Indonesia is likely to realize some relief from torrential rains. If El Nino develops as is presently indicated, the Pacific northwest will experience wetter than normal conditions in the autumn. In the winter, Louisiana eastward to Florida, and possibly southern California, could also experience wetter than normal conditions, and the northern Great Plains will be warmer.”

El Nino episodes have occurred every two to 10 years and can last up to 12 months. In Spanish their name refers to Jesus Christ because they used to take place around Christmas.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.