LAHORE, June 5: The cement industry expects its sales to grow by at least 15 per cent a year during the next two financial years in spite of political disorder and terrorist and sectarian incidents within the country , especially in Karachi, and in the region.

"Though the existing political conditions and worsening law and order situation in Karachi and elsewhere in the country, and the turmoil in the region can halt the pace of growth in the cement sector seen during the last couple of years, I still hope that demand for cement would continue to surge both within the country and in Afghanistan," All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) chairman Tariq Saeed Saigol told Dawn on Saturday.

The cement sales, including exports to Afghanistan, are likely to go up by around 18 per cent to 13.5-14 million tons by the end of the current fiscal year as compared to 11.4 million tons last year. The domestic sales have increased mainly because of the development projects launched in the public sector as well as certain incentives given by the government to the construction and housing industry in the current year's budget.

Although growth in the cement sales during the next two years is projected to be lower than the current fiscal year in terms of percentage increase, it would be higher in terms of quantity.

Despite a considerably high growth rate this year, the entire sales represent less than 80 per cent of the total installed cement capacity of about 18 million tons.

In the next two years, the installed capacity is likely to rise to 20 million tons as a result of expansion of the existing units and commissioning of new units.

However, the total installed capacity is expected to increase to 25-26 million tons by July 2007 with the commissioning of six new plants with a production capacity of 7.3 million tons.

Mr Saigol disagreed with a suggestion that the commissioning of new capacities could create a crisis of unutilized capacity as claimed by some industry sources.

"If the sales continue to grow as we hope, there won't be any such crisis," he insisted.