Tehran smartly skips flak at IAEA

Published December 1, 2004

VIENNA: By backing down in its nuclear dispute with the EU, Iran has at the last moment avoided sharp condemnation by the Council of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

There was visible relief among the Iranian and European negotiators when Tehran withdrew its demand in writing to be allowed to use 20 centrifuges for uranium enrichment. This cleared the way for "the mildest Iran resolution so far passed by the International Atomic Energy Agency Council of Governors", said a diplomat. But the EU negotiators had no illusions. "The hardest work is still ahead", they said in Vienna on Monday.

This involves a long-term European Union-Iran agreement which is to make Tehran's 18-year secret nuclear programme - particularly the disputed uranium enrichment - obsolete.

The starting point is anything but good. Observers in Vienna are growing concerned at the increasing pressure by "conservative" forces in Tehran on the shrinking group of reformers.

The negotiations in December about a comprehensive political and economic agreement may therefore soon hit severe turbulence. In particular, diplomats in Vienna critical of Iran believe that Tehran's demand to be allowed to use the 20 gas centrifuges, which was "completely unacceptable" to the EU, was only the start of Iranian crossfire.

The problems already began with the time framework for the negotiations. Iran insisted that they must be concluded "within a few months", and only saw itself bound to completely suspend its uranium enrichment programme during that time.

The Europeans saw things quite differently. For them the gas centrifuges, which could produce enriched uranium for power stations but also for atomic bombs, were to remain still until there was a comprehensive agreement with Tehran. Also, afterwards the Iranians were to refrain from enriching uranium on a permanent basis.

It is also unclear how far the Europeans can in fact implement their comprehensive aid and cooperation offer to Tehran. In many ways, success or failure of the negotiations ultimately depend on the United States.

Washington officially no longer has objections to the European Iran initiative, and reluctantly allowed European Union diplomats in Vienna to lead the negotiations for a resolution. But nothing has really changed in Washington's negative view of Iran. A US diplomat in Vienna said his side continued to have serious reservations against an agreement. It is well known in Berlin, Paris and London that the United States could indirectly make life difficult for the Europeans in the negotiations.

Washington could not only block Tehran's hoped-for entry to the World Trade Organization, but also put a brake on transfers of technology if there were US components. In this way, Washington already stopped the delivery of Airbus airliners to the Iranians.

Despite all this, European diplomats see no alternative to negotiations with Iran. If the talks fail, they expect an extremely grim scenario with inestimable political, military and economic consequences, not only for the Middle East. "Let's not deceive ourselves", said sources on the fringes of the International Atomic Energy Agency conference in Vienna. "If it goes wrong, we'll all suffer. -dpa

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