KARACHI, Nov 24: After experiencing an abrupt fall in export trade in October, when it was down to $933 million from over $1 billion in September, the exporters are looking ahead November and the coming months with hope and confidence and exceeding $14 billion export by end June next.

Since July this year, exports maintained over $1 billion earning every month in the first quarter but dipped down to $933 million in October the first month of the second quarter sending signals of strain on the export trade.

Pakistan's official export target for the current fiscal year has been put at $13.7 billion warranting export proceeds flow of at least $1 billion every month. Exporters were confident of going beyond $14 billion by end June 2005 from the very beginning but were a bit shaken from reversal of rising export trend in October.

Hopes are pinned on the success of President Musharraf's forthcoming visit to six countries of South America, Europe and Africa during which he is expected to meet President George Bush in the first week of December.

Seeking greater access to these markets for Pakistani goods is said to be the highest priority issue on President's Musharraf's agenda during the meetings with leaders of all the countries that he intends to visit.

The US gave $141 million extra access to products after Pakistan showed unconditional support to Washington in its fight against terrorism. This concession, the exporters consider mere peanuts. They hope to get a minimum benefit of $1.5 billion more in export trade.

"Export earnings in November will be much better than in October", Aziz Memon, a readymade garment exporter and Chairman of Quota Supervisory Council of the Export Promotion Bureau told Dawn. He was confident that export trade would gain further momentum in December.

Mr Memon's confidence is shared by all the big leaders of textile business who are convinced that time has come to reap the profits of what they claim $4 billion investment in increasing the capacity and improving the production quality of all segments of the textile industry.

"During 2004 only we have put in 1.4 million new spindles", All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) Chairman Arif Saeed told Dawn by telephone from Lahore on Wednesday.

Aptma former chairman Anwar Tata is convinced that the post export quota period belong to those who are "efficient, quality conscious and who apply prudent cost cutting on their production."

"We are flooded with yarn supply orders from Turkey, Bangladesh and even from India", Dewan Khalid Ayub, Chairman Aptma Sindh-Balochistan, said while pointing out that there has been tremendous improvement in the quality and quantity of yarn of different varieties.

"We are not starving the local value added textile sector of yarn", he replied when told that outflow of yarn can create shortage and price spiral in the local market that could put strain on cloth makers and towel manufacturers.

Exporters are showing confidence in wake of highly disturbing developments in the textile trade. The Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) has suspended issuing visas for shipment of a large variety of textile products of seven "hot" categories to the USA from November 13.

Fearing an embargo from the US authorities, the bureau stopped issuing visas that has thrown a big segment of textile trade into turmoil. Bad book-keeping of quota utilization is being blamed.

The federal commerce ministry is virtually going down on knees to beg from the US trade authorities in name "non-NATO ally status and the most reliable partner of Washington in fight against terrorism."

Many exporters believe that President Musharraf will be able to win main gains for them if he meets the US President. They are convinced that Musharraf's meeting with British Premier Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac should also be rewarding if some concessions can be obtained in levy of 11.8 per cent duty on Pakistani products after January 1.

Aziz Memon believes that suspension of shipment of textile products of seven categories to the USA will not impact Pakistan's total exports in the coming months. "Yes, it is a problem so far as many exporters from Pakistan are unable to meet shipment schedule of their American buyers".

But these goods can be shipped after January 1 against some subsidy from the government is the option being worked out. He said the problem is getting concession from 11.8 per cent duty to be levied on import in the Europe after January 1.

In Pakistan's overall export structure, bed sheets, rice, leather products, fish, vegetables and fruits and a few other items have shown declining trends. Exporters are convinced that many of these items will soon pick up export momentum and cover the losses sustained in last four months and will eventually show a growth in final counts.

There are 22 items which are showing rising trend in exports. Many of these items are high export earners which are cotton yarn, cloth, garments, towels, knitwear, cement and engineering goods.

Import of petroleum products has become a costly affair for Pakistan. But Pakistan exports a few petroleum products and has netted $129 million in last four months which is 55 per cent more than export of these goods in last fiscal year. Pakistan plans to export $315 million worth of petroleum products in 04-05.