Bearish spell on cotton market

Published September 21, 2004

KARACHI, Sept 20: Trading on the cotton market on Monday resumed on a bearish note as some of the ginners indulged in panic-selling fearing further decline in prices owing to higher arrivals of phutti.

There was an apparent panic among the ginners and the growers who could not precisely decide how to react to the larger than expected arrivals of phutti, leading apparently to a bumper crop, brokers said.

Weaker links among them hastened to unload in part their long positions as lower as Rs2,100 per maund but heavy mills buying at the falling prices, enabled leading ginners to raise their asking prices. Late in the evening some of the deals were done slightly above the day's lowest rate around Rs2,200 per maund.

"I don't foresee any immediate recovery in the ready rates," says a leading broker adding "the prevailing panic among the ginners and the growers reflects that spinners are now in a commanding position and may set future price line." But some others claim the price decline appears to be more psychological rather than real as it difficult to predict next fortnight's arrival figure may be much higher than the prevailing one.

"There are more than one reasons to believe that grower will not dump his stocks at the current rates as he has the capacity and the will to hold on to his unsold stocks for a couple of weeks at this time of the season," cotton analysts said and that could well lead to "a sustainable price for their produce," some others believe.

Indications are that the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) may not enter the market at this initial stage when the crop outlook is still unclear. Moreover, it will like to give a breathing space to the spinning sector to mop as much lint as it could at the current rates in an effort to keep it competitive on the international markets, they said.

The next couple of weeks could be crucial for both the size of the crop as well as ready rates as by that time spinners may have covered a good part of their export commitments, leading to stable prices.

It was in this background that ready rates were further lower by Rs25 at Rs2,200 per maund in the ready section. Ready off-take was active. Spinners and mills lifted all the lots offered for sales by the ginners amid falling prices. The following are some of the deals, which gone through:

SINDH VARIETY: 400 bales, Tando Allahyar at Rs2,100, 1,000 bales, Mirpurkhas also at this rate, 1,000 bales, Sanghar at Rs2,125 to Rs2,150, 1,000 bales, Shahdadpur at Rs2,175 to Rs2,200 and 1,000 bales, Nawabshah at Rs2,200.

PUNJAB VARIETY: 1,000 bales, Muridwala at Rs2,225 to Rs2,260, 400 bales, Multan at Rs2,250, 1,000 bales, Rahimyar Khan at Rs2,200 to Rs2,250, 800 bales, Sadiqabad at 2,200 to 2,225, 1,000 bales, Haroonabad at Rs2,225 to Rs2,250, 800 bales, Gojra and 1,000 bales, Sahiwal a Rs2,225 to Rs2,250.

The following are Monday's new crop Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) official spot rates for local dealings in Pak rupees for base grade 3 staple length 1-1/32" micronair value between 3.8 to 4.9 NCL.
Rate for Exgin price Upcountry Expenses Spot rate ex-Karachi
37.324 kgs 2,200 50 2,250.00
Equivalent
40 kgs 2,358 50 2,408.00

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