LAHORE, Aug 2: Water planners have decided to save Kharif crops but the fate of the next wheat crop appears to be uncertain as the water flow in the country's rivers has declined to an all-time low.

Sources in the Indus River System Authority said that both Punjab and Sindh had taken a policy decision to let Kharif crops (cotton and rice) have their full quota of water and expose the next Rabi crops to a severe water shortage.

Explaining the rationale behind the decision, an official of the Punjab's Irrigation Department said that Sindh and Punjab were faced with a stark choice - either save current Kharif crops and let next Rabi crops suffer or expose both crops to the dangers of water shortage. Both provinces, along with Irsa, have taken up the first option.

The decision, they say, is based upon calculations made by the Irsa on basis of current river flows. If there are no exceptional floods during the rest of the Monsoon season, the country may face up to 29 per cent shortage of irrigation water during August and September. Both provinces are now planning to meet this shortage in the next two months and adjust their supplies accordingly.

Another model, developed by the Irsa, predicted 10 to 15 per cent water shortage during the rest of Kharif season if river supplies improve substantially without high floods.

According to Irsa sources, another factor contributing to its worries is storing adequate water supply in Tarbela Dam. For the first time in its history, the dam faces the prospects of not being filled to its capacity.

Since its inauguration in 1976, the dam has never remained below its optimum level. But this year, calculated on current river flows, it may not be able to store water above a level of 1,460 feet - some 90 feet below the optimum level of 1,550 feet.

Similarly, the water level at Mangla Dam would remain frozen at 1,170 feet by the end of August. These scenarios would hold true if there are no exceptional floods during the rest of the Monsoon season, they said.

By Sept 30, which marks the end of Krahif season, Tarbela Dam would be drained to a level of 1,430 feet - 120 feet below its maximum level. Mangla Dam, the Irsa feared, would be at 1080, some 126 feet below its optimum level. They said that these disastrous scenarios haunted water planners and the nation alike, adding that no one could do anything about it.

On July 31, Tarbela Dam was about 53 feet below the planned level and Mangla was 18 feet below. The situation would only get worse in the days to come, they predicted. Referring to the potential shortage in the upcoming Rabi season, they said that it could only be predicted with some certainty by the end of Monsoon season. But, the probability of avoiding a disaster appeared to be slim.

Meanwhile, the Punjab Irrigation Department has called a meeting with the agriculture department to chalk out a water rotation plan for sharing the shortage equitably in the province. The meeting is being held on Tuesday (today) under the chairmanship of Jehangir Tareen, advisor to the Chief Minister.