ISLAMABAD, May 7: The total requirement of wheat in Pakistan in 2004-05 will be 20.25 million tons, according to the official figures prepared by the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Minfal)

This includes 10.55 million tons for Punjab, 4.31 million tons for Sindh, 2.97 million tons for NWFP, 0.97 million tons for Balochistan, 1 million tons for seed, feed, etc., and 0.45 million tons for "others".

According to the current statistics about the size of 2003-04 Rabi crop, Punjab, with estimated output of 16.10 millions, has a surplus of nearly 6 million tons - almost enough to meet the needs of the three deficit provinces and other uses. Sindh will need to obtain 2.11 million tons, NWFP 1.87 million tons and Balochistan 0.27 million tons.

The country has carryover stock of 160,000 tons - the lowest ever in the recent history of Pakistan - from 2003-04 is little solace, particularly after the recent rains.

The only consolation, commented an independent economist, is that the government, by deciding to ban export, has acknowledged the gravity of the situation and ignored the advice of those circles who consider "export" as a sacred canon of economic policy, irrespective of the implications for the people.

The wheat prices might not have shot up in 2003-04 and the country would have been spared recurrent shortages had the government not listened to these elements who insisted throughout 2003-04 that there was enough wheat available not only to meet the food needs of the people but also to justify export.

The latest estimates now worked out by Minfal are that the size of the crop actually was 19.19 million tons- about 0.58 million tons less than the figure given by Minfal previously.

After the Government did import a small quantity of wheat from Australia, the vested interest' intent on exploiting the situation prevailed upon the relevant quarters not to allow the ship to unload on the plea that it was sub-standard. Ironically, however, the same Australian wheat was subsequently purchased by Dubai.

Interestingly, nobody in the Federal Capital is now talking about banking upon the traders to maintain equilibrium between the supply and demand of wheat. As a senior MINFAL official remarked, "their sole motivation is self-enrichment, irrespectively of the miseries of the ordinary people."