Wheat is a major staple food crop of Pakistan, and occupies nearly 38 per cent of the total cultivated area. However, in 56 years we imported the commodity for 46 years, despite having the largest irrigation system. During 1947 wheat import was mere 0.01 million tons which increased to1.3 million tons in 1960.

Though, in mid-60s a green revolution in wheat production was witnessed on the introduction of high yielding Mexican varieties. This could not be maintained as imports varied from 0.22 million tons to 1.96 million tons in 70s, and 0.6 million tons to 1.8 million tons in 80s, reaching to 4.1 million tons in 1997-98. This reflects dismal wheat production system.

In 1999-00 the country produced a bumper crop of over 21 million tons which resulted in wheat export during the three years. Nevertheless, mismanaged production strategies, poor marketing system, and inadequate storage facilities will lead to severe shortage till the harvesting of the next wheat crop, inspite of the claims of sufficient reserves by Minfal. If not so, then why the original decision to import 0.5million tons has been raised to 1.5 million tons, along with an alarming hike in flour price.

According to reports the current wheat stocks in Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan will be exhausted by February. Sindh is expected to face a deficit of 100,000 tons, the NWFP 65,000 tons and Balochistan 165,000 tons. One of the reasons is wheat's smuggling across our porous borders.

Many politicians and bureaucracy do not want the country to become self-sufficient in wheat and edible oil, as they get huge commissions on their import, besides earning from smuggling. Smuggling of locally- manufactured fertilizer has also started. Another reason is the irrigation water scarcity during crop growth.

During the two decades ending in 2000, area under wheat cultivation increased from 6.98 million hectares to 8.46 million hectares, production from 11.47 million tons to over 21 million tons, yield from 1,643kg to 2,491kg per hectare. Yet, we imported wheat for 16 years of these 20 years. The record yield obtained in 1999-2000 is still far below the demonstrated achievable yield potential of 6,425kg per hectare obtained at farmers' field by the FAO experts in Pakistan by following the advanced technology.

Moreover, the highest production in 1999-2000 again declined in the succeeding years. The average yield of wheat in India is 2,596kg per hectare as against the highest yield of 2,491kg per hectare - ever achieved in Pakistan - inspite of nearly 70 per cent of their cultivated area being rain-fed as against 80 per cent of our cultivated area being irrigated. Likewise, the yield of Indian Punjab is 4,400kg per hectare as compared to 2,667kg per hectare ever obtained so far by our Punjab - the largest wheat producing province.

It is unfortunate that though Pakistan is 7th largest wheat growing country in the world but ranks 59th in terms of yield per hectare. This again reflects on our dismal wheat production system inspite of the release of a horde of high yielding and disease resistant varieties during the past half a century.

A consistent increase in diesel and electricity rates has put enormous pressure on the use of farm machinery and tubewell water, especially by small, subsistent and below subsistent-level farmers who cultivate over 61 per cent of the total farm area. In the decade ending in 1999-2000, cost of urea was increased by 66 per cent, DAP by 154 per cent, AS by 235 per cent, AN by 153 per cent and SSP by 209 per cent. Similarly, electricity rates for tubewell increased by 343 per cent in Punjab and Sindh, and by 372 per cent in the NWFP and Balochistan.

The support price of wheat during the first half of the decade increased by 39 per cent, and by 25 per cent during the second half. These increases in support prices were not adequate to meet the increasing cost of inputs- diesel, electricity, etc. Unfortunately, a large number of wheat growers do not get the announced support price due to the connivance of middlemen who purchase wheat at less than the support price and sell it at the support price or more.

Likewise, the concerned departments purchase wheat below support price and send the bills to the government at the rate of support price, thus earning money illegally at the expense of the common wheat growers.

Various governments announced increase in agricultural credit to farmers for the timely purchase of inputs, etc. The credit increased from Rs1,496 million to Rs3,762 million in the decade ending 1999-2000. However, this was not enough to meet the cost of inputs, farm machinery, diesel, electricity, and labour. Furthermore, influential politicians and feudal lords took major part of this credit against the names of their tenants showing them as small farmers. The tragedy is that these politically influentials also get the loans as written-off. Small farmers and landless tenants are the worst sufferers.

Similarly, concerned departments claimed distributing sufficient quantity of improved wheat seed. In fact, in the last decade distribution of improved wheat seed increased from 11.8 per cent of the total requirement to 16 per cent, whereas nearly 84 per cent of unimproved and mixed seed was used by the grower which resulted in the reduction of yield by 20 per cent.

Of the total wheat area 72 per cent is in Punjab contributing nearly 75 per cent production. Moreover, 70 per cent of wheat in Punjab is sown in late December and early January in rice-wheat and cotton-wheat belts as against the optimum planting time of October 20 to November 21. Thereafter, delay of successive one day in wheat sowing results in the reduction of yield by 35kg per hectare.

Of the total rice area in Punjab nearly 78 per cent is under Basmati rice, which matures late as compared to the course rice harvested in October and permits timely sowing of wheat unlike basmati rice. Pre-sowing irrigation for the preparation of land for wheat after harvesting basmati rice further delays wheat sowing for about two weeks or so, before soil moisture conditions permit land preparation for its sowing.

However, a recently introduced zero tillage drill permits direct seeding of wheat in rice stubbles after its harvest as there is enough moisture below the soil due to heavy irrigations to rice crop.

It also places fertilizer below the seed at the same time. The advantages of zero tillage are reduction in delayed sowing period of wheat in rice belt, saving 100 per cent cost for seedbed preparation, saving 20 per cent irrigation water and increase in yield by 15-20 per cent. The poor linkages between the agriculture department and inter departmental rivalry has resulted in poor communication to the farmers for increasing wheat yield in rice-wheat belt of Punjab.

Similarly, the relay crop technology in cotton-wheat belt can permit early planting of wheat in standing crop of cotton in the third week of November without effecting the yield of cotton, besides increasing the yield of wheat due to its early planting. The farmers are not using it due to the lack of information, education and training. This again reflects on the poor performance of the agriculture department.

Wheat yield is lowest in the NWFP, followed by Balochistan. There is too much interference by the politicians and bureaucracy in the affairs of agriculture department. For instance an eminent scientist of the NWFP prepared an FAO-approved and funded project for increasing wheat production. He purchased seven cars for enabling the research workers to travel to various ecological zones of the province for evolution of wheat varieties and developing specific production technology required for each zone.

The then minister of agriculture and his sons, and the agriculture secretary took away six cars for their personal use. Thus, the planned research could not be undertaken. This is just one example. Similar interferences are common in all four provinces.

In Balochistan over-mining of groundwater, and the outdated conventional rain water harvesting have adversely affected the yield of irrigated and rain-fed wheat in 95 per cent of the province lying outside the canal irrigated area. The policy makers should take serious cognizance of this dismal wheat production scenario and develop crash programme to attain self- sufficiency, as a heavily indebted nation cannot afford the luxury of importing wheat and other agricultural commodities quite so often.