BANGKOK: If US President George Bush were to look east from his colonial enterprise in Iraq, he may find lessons to draw from the spirit of democracy due to take hold in the Muslim world this new year.

That is because out of the nine Asian countries where national elections are to be held, four will be in Muslim nations - Afghanistan, Indonesia, Iran and Malaysia. The other countries where polls are due in 2004 are India, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and, possibly, Sri Lanka.

Afghanistan, no doubt, will be of particular interest to Washington, given the parallels with Iraq - a country that has also felt the weight of a US-led conquest to get rid of its oppressive regime and where democracy is now being imposed, with elections to take place by June 2004.

Afghanistan's just concluded 'loya jirga' (grand assembly) offered a flavour of how a people who are deeply conservative Muslims are preparing to embrace democracy, along with key elements for its longevity, like a modern constitution.

Women's rights and participation in the country's political process future have emerged as key factors in shaping Afghanistan's experiment with democracy.When the estimated 10.5 million eligible votes in that war- ravaged nation cast their ballots in 2004, it will mark the first time Afghan citizens will be choosing their head of state in competitive elections.

But it would be an error for Washington to feel sanguine at the turn of events in Afghanistan, since not all citizens are cheering at the message coming out of Kabul that there is hope for democracy.

"Unless the plague of fundamentalism is wiped out of the country, no law, no elections, could play any positive role in improving the economic and political situation," declares the Revolutionary Association of the Women of Afghanistan (RAWA), an independent group formed in 1977 to fight for women's rights in the country.

Set against this backdrop are polls due in countries that are in a far less state of turmoil and where the spirit of democracy has seeped into the body politic - Indonesia, Iran and Malaysia. Each of them, in their own way, will bring to light issues that should be insightful to Bush.

After all, one excuse trotted out by the White House in its conquest of Iraq was that it would help usher in democracy to the Middle East, where Arab countries are largely ruled either by dictators, ruthless monarchies or autocrats. Syria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are typical examples.

During the polls in Indonesia, Iran and Malaysia, all eyes will be on whether the conservatives or moderate Muslims get the edge in the battle. As significant would be the political implications that would follow. For instance, if the conservative Parti Islam sa-Malaysia (PAS) either wins or makes substantial gains at Malyasia's parliamentary elections in 2004, would it push the country to shed its image of a moderate Muslim nation for a more conservative or intolerant Muslim country like Saudi Arabia.

The PAS has said that if it wins in the elections, it would impose strict Islamic "shariah" law in Malaysia and advocate an alternative political system to Western-style democracy.

For Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Malaysia's prime minister, the challenge is for his United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party to retain its power. Such a triumph would amplify the point made by Mahathir Mohamad, who stepped down as prime minister after 22 years in October, that this South-east Asian country remains a model of a moderate Muslim country.

To some extent, the Indonesian poll would also bring to the fore issues that frame the Malaysian poll. Could the elections reflect that Islam and democracy are compatible at a time when there is a growing chorus in the West that assert that the two do not mix?

The views of Indonesia's Muslim majority at the 2004 elections will also not be lost when gauging where they stand in the showdown between the conservative and liberal religious forces, since this archipelago has the largest Muslim population in the world.

"The principles of democracy (i.e. equality before the law, freedom, accountability and justice) are strongly embedded in Islamic jurisprudence and value system," writes Radwan Masmoudi in the winter issue of the "Muslim Democrat", a publication of the Washington D.C. based Centre for the Study of Islam and Democracy.

However, it is inevitable, he adds, that the role of religion in politics will have to be negotiated by religious leaders, and it will "probably remain important in the context of Muslim societies".

Surin Pitsuwan, Thailand's former foreign affairs minister who belongs to the country's Muslim minority, says the scheduled elections in four Muslim countries will offer two clear messages.

On the one hand, it will help dispel the notion that democracy and Islam are not compatible, he said. "I don't agree with that argument, because every Muslim aspires for the freedoms that democracy guarantees."

On the other, he adds, "The elections will serve as another period of incubation and experimentation with the democratic model." Muslim societies, he pointed out, "have not had a long spell to nurture this form of government."

Notes Masmoudi: "From Morocco to Indonesia, Muslims are struggling with the question of how to be a good Muslim in the 21st Century."