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WASHINGTON: President Barack Obama starts out with a honeymoon of monumental proportions, buoyed by big poll numbers, friendly news coverage and so far getting his way with a US Congress dominated by his own party.
Veterans of past presidencies say honeymoons always end, but they and other experts say Obama may well enjoy an extended period of adulation as he attempts to right the sinking US economy and address other pressing challenges.
“You never know what’s going to happen,” said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia.
“Sometimes presidents look like they’re going to have a long honeymoon and they don’t, because of a misstep or a crisis.”
So far Obama seems to be making the right moves as he settles into power, keeping his focus on the No 1 priority of Americans – the economy – while reaching out to political opponents and taking a centrist approach to governing.
The estimated 1.8 million people who swarmed into Washington for his inauguration on a frigid day on Tuesday – the biggest crowd ever for such an event – was a reminder of the political clout the first black US president carries.
A key measure of the success of Obama’s early weeks and months in office will be how well he handles negotiations over an estimated $825 billion economic stimulus plan which is rapidly moving through Congress.
Both Democrats and Republicans have signalled differences with Obama and with each other over the size, scope and direction of the package.
Anxious Americans
Americans who have lost jobs and are watching their retirement accounts dry up are waiting anxiously for the result.
“I think people on both sides want him to be successful,” said Republican strategist Ron Kaufman, who was President George H.W. Bush’s political adviser. “But that doesn’t mean people are going to walk away from what they believe is right or wrong. So you’ll have some mature differences on direction. How he handles that will be important.”
A pre-inaugural poll by the Pew Research Center showed the depth of warm feelings about Obama and the trust Americans have in him even among those who did not vote for him.
It gave him a 70 per cent approval rating, compared to 50 per cent in 2001 when George W. Bush took office after his long recount battle with Al Gore, and 62 per cent when Bill Clinton entered the White House in 1993.
“He has an American electorate that for the most part is somewhat down on its luck after eight years of the Bush administration, is hungry for change, demands change and is expecting that change to be delivered,” said Democratic strategist Bud Jackson.
Past presidencies show that honeymoons are fleeting and missteps can be costly.
Jeff Eller, who was a senior White House official for Clinton, said Clinton’s honeymoon suffered in an early flap over gays serving in the military. Two botched nominations for attorney-general also contributed.
“I don’t think we had a honeymoon,” Eller said. “It seemed to me that we were more on the defensive than we were on the offensive.”
George H.W. Bush’s honeymoon crashed in a bitter Senate confirmation battle over John Tower to be defence secretary.
“That was certainly the leading indicator that it was ending,” said Kaufman.
Major presidential decisions may seem the right thing to do in hindsight but not always at first blush.
Gerald Ford had an approval rating in the 70s until his pardon of the disgraced Richard Nixon caused him to plummet into the 40s. The pardon is now seen by many as a wise decision but was unpopular at the time.
The most recent Bush got a big tax cut and education legislation through Congress before his honeymoon ended in 2001.
His approval soared with his reaction to the Sept 11 attacks, and he had the public behind him for his invasion of Iraq, only to see his popularity collapse as the war prolonged and no weapons of mass destruction were found. He left office with record low popularity.
So far, analysts credit Obama for reaching out to his political opponents. And he is getting breathless news coverage in response to the public demand for all the information it can soak up about the new family in the White House, from the 10 minutes Obama spent solo in the Oval Office on Wednesday to the fashions worn by his wife, Michelle.—Reuters
