Eurozone business activity at 7-year low

Published September 24, 2008

BRUSSELS, Sept 23: Business activity in the 15 nations sharing the euro slumped in September to the lowest level since just after the attacks on the United States in 2001, according to a survey on Tuesday, fuelling fresh recession fears.

The eurozone’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI), compiled by data and research group Markit, slid to 47.0 points in September from 48.2 in August, according to an initial estimate.

The new figure, which brought the index to its lowest level since November 2001, fell short of an economists’ estimate of 47.8.

“The fall in oil prices and the decline in the euro from mid-July to mid-September has done nothing to raise the spirits of the business sector in the eurozone,” said Bank of America economist Holger Schmieding.

“To the contrary, the mood took a further sharp turn for the worse in September according to the flash purchasing managers indices,” he added.

The index’s fall marked the fourth consecutive month of contraction, which is indicated by a reading of less than 50 points.

Meanwhile, the index for activity in the eurozone’s vast services sector also retreated, falling to 48.2 points from 48.5 in August, while manufacturing activity dropped to 45.3 from 47.6 in August.

“Eurozone PMIs kept delivering bad news in September, confirming that the slowdown the overall economy is experiencing is severe and will be rather prolonged,” said economist Aurelio Maccario at Italian bank Unicredit.

“September’s eurozone flash PMI surveys continue to suggest that the region may have entered its first technical recession since the inception of the euro,” said economist Ben May at consultants Capital Economics.

He said that the index indicated that the eurozone economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter, which if confirmed would be the second consecutive quarter of contraction after a 0.2 slump in the second quarter.

Economists define a technical recession as two consecutive quarters of contraction.

The EC forecast earlier this month that the eurozone would escape a technical recession by the narrowest of margins, although the estimate was made before the turmoil on financial markets over the last week.

Economists said that darker outlook for economic activity, which is likely to cool inflation pressures, would likely lead to interest rate cuts at the ECB starting early next year.—AFP

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