WASHINGTON, Aug 23: Iraq’s government will become more precarious in the months ahead and a drawdown of US forces could increase levels of sectarian violence, US spy agencies said in a grim report on Thursday.

The new intelligence estimate also predicted that security improvements made over the past six months will erode if the US military narrows its mission to supporting the Iraqi security forces and fighting Al Qaeda.

“The IC (intelligence community) assesses that the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other members of the major Shia coalition” as well as Sunni and Kurdish parties, the new US intelligence estimate warned.

The declassified judgments of the assessment were released by the Director for National Intelligence, and came amid mounting frustration inside the US administration at the lack of political progress in Iraq.

Maliki’s attempts to bridge Iraq’s ethnic and sectarian divides have so far failed, with 17 of his 40-strong cabinet having resigned, and daily bloodshed taking its toll on ordinary Iraqis.

Unless there is “a fundamental shift in factors driving Iraqi political and security developments,” the political compromises needed for “sustained security, long-term political progress, and economic development are unlikely to emerge,” the assessment said.

Iraqi leaders who are already “unable to govern effectively” will struggle to achieve national political reconciliation, it warned.

The report did conclude that since its assessment in January there have been “measurable but uneven” improvements in Iraq’s security in the past months, but said the “level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high.” US President George Bush sent an extra 30,000 troops to Iraq early in the year boosting US forces on the ground to 160,000 in a bid to halt the sectarian violence in Baghdad and surrounding Anbar province.

Iraqi security forces have performed adequately but have not improved enough to conduct major operations independently of the coalition, the report said.

“We assess that changing the mission of coalition forces from a primarily counter insurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent (Al Qaeda in Iraq) from establishing a safe haven would erode security gains achieved thus far,” it warned.

The conclusions could be used by the Bush administration to justify prolonging the surge, despite the war’s growing unpopularity here and mounting calls for a troop withdrawal.

Perceptions of a US pullout “probably will encourage factions anticipating a power vacuum to seek local security solutions that could intensify sectarian violence and intra-sectarian competition,” the report said.

“At the same time, fearing a coalition withdrawal, some tribal elements and Sunni groups probably will continue to seek accommodation with the coalition to strengthen themselves for a post-coalition security environment,” it said.

The White House said the intelligence assessment shows that “our strategy has improved the security environment in Iraq, but we still face very tough challenges ahead.”—AFP