LAHORE, Aug 15: Amid favourable opinion polls questions are being asked as to just how strong Mian Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League is in his own city, Lahore. Estimates about the PML-N’s strength here vary, with some projections in recent days saying that the party is likely to bag most of the Lahore seats in the next general election. If that happens, it would mean that all efforts made by the official Muslim League under the stewardship of the Chaudhrys of Gujrat to secure the Punjab metropolis have been futile. There is compelling evidence to suggest though that the Sharifs have no reason to be complacent.

The recent reception to acting PML-N president Makhdoom Javed Hashmi on his release from jail should be a sign of concern for the party leadership. ‘Outsiders’ dominated this show in Lahore. There were banners welcoming the Makhdoom on Aug 4 as he came out after spending 45 months in prison, but few, if any, of them flaunted the names of the local PML-N office-bearers.

All or a majority of these welcoming banners were arranged by aspirants for party tickets in the polls. From the Kot Lakhpat prison, Mr Hashmi set out for Data Darbar and the biggest reception camp arranged on the way was at Ichhra Morr where Mian Noman, a hopeful for a PML-N ticket from the provincial constituency, welcomed him along with a few hundred supporters.

The PML-N also needs to ‘open up’ its public meetings to justifiably claim the title of being the largest party in the city. The meetings need to come out of the narrow lanes and the residences of party leaders such as Mian Mujtaba Shujaur Rehman, a member of the Punjab Assembly, and PML-N’s district president, Mian Marghub. An insider says that the party has gone high-tech as word about such meetings is spread via SMS, making a senior journalist to tag the Nawaz League as an “SMS party”.

Observers say the Punjab PML-N’s chief Sardar Zulfikar Khosa, a feudal lord from southern Punjab, and former secretary-general MNA Khwaja Saad Rafiq, a representative of the middle class leadership in the party, could not maintain a good working relationship with each other. Mr Rafiq had to be removed from his office after his supporters allegedly misbehaved with a senior leader in the provincial offices. That he may still hold sway over local MPAs is not surprising — given that, as the provincial secretary-general, he must have played a major role in the award of party tickets to these MPAs.

After Mr Rafiq quit the secretary-general’s office, Zaeem Qadri was brought in his place. He too could not last long and Raja Ashfaq Sarwar succeeded him. The current incumbent is also facing opposition. Many in the party feel that he sneaked out of the country when the PML-N was passing through a difficult phase during the early days of the Musharraf government. They say that he returned only after the harsh times were over.

When Mian Azhar formed the PML-likeminded (later renamed as PML-Q) after the military coup of Oct 12, 1999, a number of local PML-N leaders who could not withstand the pressure of the powers that matter joined the king’s party. Voters disapproved of this change of loyalty on the part of these leaders and rejected them in the 2002 general election.

The PML-N deserters who fought and were defeated on PML-Q tickets included Kamil Ali Agha and Mian Abdul Sattar — both of whom had been elected as MPA from the provincial constituencies falling under the National Assembly seat from where Shahbaz Sharif had returned as MNA—, Khwaja Riaz Mahmood, Chaudhry Akhtar Rasool, Mian Shahbaz Ahmed and Haji Maqsood Butt, former MNAs Mian Abdul Waheed and PML-N city president Mian Munir and vice-president Khwaja Tahir Zia.

Kamil Agha, now a senator, and Mian Abdul Sattar are provincial leaders of PML-Q. Mian Munir is the Lahore chapter president of the official League. The second spell of loyalty change came after the 2002 polls and before the local elections of 2005. MPA Malik Ahad joined the PML-Q and then MPA Rehana Jamil went to the ruling party along with her brother Haji Hanif, who was Lahore PML-N president at that time. Haji Hanif’s son Idrees Hanif, later went on to win the office of Lahore district naib nazim.