ISLAMABAD, July 30: Pakistan’s 25-year energy security plan (2005-30) is expected to be substantially altered in about a year’s time with the help of international consultants as some key targets proposed under the existing plan seem unachievable, it is learnt.

Sources in the government told Dawn that a new 20-year ‘Pakistan Strategic Energy Plan 2009-29’ would replace the existing plan. With the funding and technical guidance of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the government would establish within 45 days a new planning unit comprising five or six international experts.

The government is anticipating the energy crisis to worsen in the next two years due to a 50 per cent increase in demand. The power shortage that had been estimated to remain in the range of 1000-2000MW this year in fact crossed 2,900MW a few months back. The shortfall is likely to reach about 5,300MW by 2010. Overall, Pakistan’s total energy requirement is expected to be around 80 million tons of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2010, up by about 50 per cent from the current year’s 54 MTOE.

“Since four out of five major initiatives originally planned for meeting this demand are uncertain at present, the shortage could be anybody’s guess,” said a senior government official. Hence, the need for a professional review of the energy security plan based on ground realities was felt instead of relying on mere wishlists, he added.

The Energy Planning Unit would develop the strategic energy plan in one year after reviewing all existing policies.

“Natural gas, power, and oil shortages were all posing risks to the economic growth in medium to long term period,” said an official who would be closely working with the planning unit.

The main focus of the policy review is to examine in detail the long term cost of each effort and source of energy in terms of financial, economic, energy supply and various uses, domestic resources, and long term political costs.

The demand for natural gas, having about 50 per cent share in the country’s energy consumption, would increase by 44 per cent to 39MTOE from 27MTOE currently, an official said. The government had planned to add an overall power generation capacity of about 7,880MW by 2010. Of this, about 4,860MW was to be based on natural gas, accounting for 61 per cent of the capacity expansion. However, the gas-based power expansion of about 4,860MW would remain in doubt since these estimates are based on three gas import options for completion in 2010, 2015 and 2020.

This means that the major part of about 4,860 gas-based plants would not be available and the difference would be met through other costly options. “Even if the physical work is started today, it will take at least seven years to complete a pipeline project,” said a senior petroleum ministry official. The fifth initiative of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import is expected to remain on schedule and start delivering about 0.3 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFD) by 2009-10 and another 0.5 BCFD by 2015.