QANDIL MOUNTAINS (Iraq-Iran-Turkey): The fragile quiet in this no-man’s-land is broken by a young fighter shooting into the air at a regular morning ceremony to “commemorate martyrs”.

The firing is more than ceremonial. A new threat of war is looming in this mountain range in the north of Iraq, cutting into Turkey and Iran.

All three countries have large Kurdish populations, and the governments of all three are worried about a Kurdish uprising for a separate homeland. Only in Iraq do Kurds have an autonomous region of their own. Over the past few months Turkey and Iran have been threatening to sweep positions held by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party of Turkey (PKK) off these mountains. They accuse the PKK of launching cross-border operations from Iraq’s soil into Turkey and Iran.

The PKK announced unilateral ceasefire on Oct 1 last year, symbolically on world peace day, but it was rejected by the Turkish government.

“We don’t want to be forced to fight, and are still expecting a positive response to our ceasefire message from the relevant parties,” Rostam Joudi, member of PKK’s leadership council said.

“Otherwise, we are quite prepared to counter any (Turkish) military operation. We can raise the level of the conflict...and it may get bigger than Iraq and Arab-Israeli conflicts.”

PKK is on the terror list of Turkey, the United States and the European Union. The group’s fight for a Kurdish homeland in Turkey since the early 1980s has claimed more than 35,000 lives.

The prospect of a conflict between PKK and Turkish troops has worried Iraqi Kurds who fear that a Turkish attack on PKK bases may lead to long-term occupation of their Kurdistan region in northern Iraq.

It was mainly Iraqi Kurds who persuaded PKK to announce the ceasefire, hoping it would open the channel for diplomacy. But the move backfired; Turks argued that it was a sign of Iraqi Kurds’ relations with PKK.

Turkish army chief Gen. Yasar Buyukanit accused Iraqi Kurdish political parties last month of being “the biggest supporter of the PKK at the moment.” Iraq’s Kurdish political parties are now uncertain how to deal with the PKK. Kurdistan regional president Massoud Barzani told the Turkish NTV channel that his forces will not simply stand by should Turkish troops enter northern Iraq. The Kurdistan regional government also rejects military action against the PKK guerillas; a Kurd attack on Kurds will be strongly opposed by the public.

PKK leaders are expecting a Turkish military invasion in spring. They expect the attack to have limited scope in terms of “the time and area of operation.” —Dawn/The IPS News Service