Dollar lower against euro

Published October 29, 2006

NEW YORK, Oct 28: The dollar fell to near one-month lows against the euro Friday on news that the US economy in the third quarter grew at its slowest pace in more than three years.

The euro bought $1.2738 at 2100 GMT compared to 1.2693 late Thursday in New York, its highest point since early October.

The dollar fell to 117.57 yen against 118.37 on Thursday.

The Commerce Department estimated that the US economy expanded at a 1.6 percent annual rate between July and September, down from 2.6 per cent in the prior three months and the heady 5.6 percent recorded in the first quarter.

Economists had been expecting third-quarter growth to decelerate to 2.1 per cent. It was the slowest growth in US gross domestic product (GDP) since the first quarter of 2003, when growth was 1.2 per cent.

The department said the sluggish momentum reflected a housing slowdown and a higher trade deficit.

Analysts said the data reinforced market expectations that the US Federal Reserve would not raise borrowing costs again any time soon, and could in fact start cutting them next year.

The dollar showed a knee-jerk negative reaction to the report as market players reduced expectations of a future Fed rate hike and began rebuilding expectations of a rate cut next year, said Michael Woolfolk, currency strategist at the Bank of New York.The euro climbed to a high of 1.2752 dollars, its highest reading since October 3.

But analysts also said the prospect of another Fed rate hike had not been completely erased given ongoing inflation worries.

The GDP report's core price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.3 percent in the third quarter, down from 2.7 per cent in the second. But the annual rate increased to 2.4 per cent, its highest since the second quarter of 2005.

Today's GDP report was tailor-made for the dollar bears, showing faster than expected declines in both growth and core inflation, said Woolfolk.

Earlier this week, the Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25 percent for the third meeting in a row but toned down its rhetoric on inflation.

In particular, there was no mention that rising energy prices might keep inflation at elevated levels, in a departure from previous statements.

The next key release will be the October non-farm payrolls report next Friday.

“A negative print for US payrolls is in the post and the next move in rates is down,” said Ian Kernohan, economist at Royal London Asset Management.

The euro had been buoyed by the news that M3 money supply in the 12-nation single currency zone rose by an annual 8.5 percent, up from the 8.2 percent growth rate recorded in August and above analysts' expectations for a slowdown to 8.0 per cent.

Following a strong German Ifo business expectations survey and consumer inflation data earlier this week, more investors now think the European Central Bank will raise its key rate further after an expected quarter-point hike to 3.50 percent in December.The pound rose to 1.8978 dollars, from 1.8906 late Thursday.

The dollar stood at 1.2454 Swiss francs, against 1.2532.

—AFP

Opinion

Editorial

GB polls’ aftermath
11 Jun, 2026

GB polls’ aftermath

IT appears that the PPP is in a comfortable position to form the government in Gilgit-Baltistan after Sunday’s...
Peace in retreat
11 Jun, 2026

Peace in retreat

THE ceasefire announced in April was supposed to create space for negotiations. Instead, it has been repeatedly...
A few good men
11 Jun, 2026

A few good men

IT was a brave move, no doubt. This Tuesday, in the land of the Afghan Taliban, a few good men decided to take a...
Centre vs provinces
Updated 10 Jun, 2026

Centre vs provinces

The reason the centre finds itself in this position is rooted in its failure to expand the tax net and boost revenues.
Party in crisis
10 Jun, 2026

Party in crisis

THE young KP chief minister must be starting to realise just how thorny a seat he occupies. There has been a flurry...
Varsity woes
10 Jun, 2026

Varsity woes

FINANCIAL crises affecting public sector universities across Pakistan are now having an impact on academic...