WASHINGTON, Oct 5: Pakistan and India may resolve the Siachen dispute during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s expected visit to Islamabad but there could be little progress on the Kashmir issue, says Mirwaiz Umar Farooq.

Mirwaiz, who head the All Parties Hurriyet Conference, said at a briefing in Washington that he got this ‘impression’ from what President Pervez Musharraf told him about his talks with the Indian prime minister in Havana, Cuba, last month.

Mirwaiz met President Musharraf during the latter’s recent visit to the United States.

“My impression is that they are ready to resolve the Siachen dispute,” he said. “President Musharraf was also very optimistic about finding a solution to the Kashmir issue but events on the ground are not very hopeful.”

President Musharraf invited Mr Singh to visit Islamabad when he met him in Havana. The Indian prime minister has accepted the invitation but no date has yet been fixed for the visit.

A senior South Asian diplomat, when asked to comment on Mirwaz’s statement, said he too believed that India and Pakistan were ready to resolve the Siachen and Sir Creek disputes.

“They came that close in the past too. Then the Indians backed out. So I would keep my fingers crossed,” he said.

The first understanding to resolve the Siachen dispute was reached in 1989 at the end of the defence secretary-level talks. The two countries also came close to a resolution in November 1992.

The two agreements were reviewed and endorsed at a summit meeting between President Musharraf and Prime Minister Singh in New Delhi in April last year when they also agreed to settle the Sir Creek dispute. But so far no follow up action has been taken.

Diplomatic sources in Washington say that a deal on Siachen could be based on one of the three propositions: an accord to de-escalate hostilities, an understanding to disengage military forces, or an agreement to demilitarise the area.

Indian and Pakistani troops have confronted each other on the Siachen Glacier since 13 April 1984. The conflict has resulted in hundreds of casualties, caused more by adverse climatic conditions and harsh terrain than the occasional military skirmish. This is by far the longest-running armed conflict between two regular armies in the 20th century.

Although the military stalemate favours Pakistan because of India’s comparatively higher human and financial costs, Islamabad has demonstrated flexibility on the Siachen issue. It is willing to consider measures ranging from redeployment to demilitarisation.

The Indians, who started the confrontation by sending troops to this frozen land, however, are less accommodating, apparently because of domestic political considerations.

“While we are happy that India and Pakistan will be able to resolve the Siachen dispute, it does not open the door to settling the Kashmir issue,” said Mirwaiz.

“This is a much more serious issue and requires a greater commitment from both India and Pakistan, which I do not see,” said the Kashmiri leader.

President Musharraf, however, believes that the two sides can ‘make headway’ on Kashmir as well when he meets Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Mirwaiz said.

“He feels that Mr Singh’s visit will be very crucial. They have already started working on the visit but I believe they need to do more homework to make the Kashmiris believe that they are moving towards resolving the Kashmir dispute.”