LONDON: Britain is looking to the bookies _ not pollsters and commentators _ to try and nail down an exact date for Prime Minister Tony Blair’s departure. Bookmakers have collected 250,000 pounds in wagers over the past 48 hours and say the growing political betting market will be boosted further by Mr Blair’s refusal on Thursday to give a precise departure date. He conceded only that he would be gone by this time next year.

Five million pounds was bet on last year’s British national elections through betting shops and online betting exchanges _ an election that saw Mr Blair’s Labour Party wining an unprecedented third term.

Academics, party activists and betting chains say it is the form book _ not opinion polls _ that offers the most accurate predictions of who will replace Mr Blair and whether they can win a fourth term for Labour.

“It’s a real barometer of the public mood _ people put their money where their mouth is,” said Rupert Adams, of Britain’s William Hill betting chain. “And time and time again it is the bookmaker who gets it right.”

Mr Blair and his likely successor, Treasury chief Gordon Brown, are fast slipping in their popularity, bookmakers say. Worse still, their governing Labour Party has lost its position as favourite to triumph in the next national election, expected in 2009.

“Odds on Blair seeing out 2007 as leader haemorrhaged inside three hours of a newspaper publishing purported details of his intentions,” said Robin Hutchinson, of Ladbrokes betting chain, said of media reports this week. “Betting also increased on him having to step down before the end of 2006.”

Hutchinson said Labour is quoted at 5/4 to win the next general election _ the party’s lowest odds since 1995. “The form book shows the opposition Conservatives as odds on favourites,” he said.

Hutchinson said current betting indicated Mr Brown would win the contest to become Mr Blair’s successor, but appeared doomed to quickly lose office to the Conservatives.

“Brown is the current favourite, but his numbers are on the slide and the odds of him winning a national election in 2009 or 2010 appear slim,” he said.—AP