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Below are answers to some questions about what might come next after the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for an end to fighting in Lebanon:
WHEN WILL THE FIGHTING STOP?
Not yet. Despite welcoming the deal, Israel is going ahead with an offensive towards Lebanon’s Litani River, the line to which Hezbollah would be expected to withdraw under the resolution. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s cabinet is likely to endorse the resolution on Sunday, but that does not mean fighting will automatically stop then — particularly if Hezbollah also continues firing rockets into Israel.
HOW SOON COULD THE NEW UN TROOPS DEPLOY?
Diplomats say it could take another 10 days or so for the UN troops and Lebanese soldiers to begin taking over southern Lebanon. Israeli forces would then withdraw from an area they gave up in 2000 after a 22-year occupation.
SO WHO WON?
Both sides will claim victory. Hezbollah still holds the two Israeli soldiers whose capture in a cross-border raid on July 12 sparked the war. The guerrillas have also shown they could survive the onslaught of one of the world’s mightiest armies. They have managed to put the issue of the disputed Shebaa Farms border area on the agenda.
Under the resolution, Israel would achieve its goal of getting Hezbollah away from the border to be replaced by the Lebanese and UN forces. The resolution could also make it harder for Hezbollah to get new supplies of rockets. It calls for the implementation of UN resolution 1559, providing for Hezbollah’s disarmament, but does not say when.
Civilians on both sides are the big losers.
WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR OLMERT?
Despite the assertions that Israel got a good deal, the Israeli government’s handling of the war has come in for growing criticism. Many Israelis, including some top officers, believe troops should have gone in much earlier and much harder to try to do more damage to Hezbollah and stop it firing rockets into Israel — even if that would have meant more dead soldiers. Days of apparent dithering ahead of the UN resolution did not help.
Some right-wing opponents, who believe that Israel should have achieved a clear military victory, are already calling for new elections. Polls show slipping support for Ehud Olmert, who does not have the military credentials of most of his predecessors.
WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR HIZB?
By agreeing to the deployment of the Lebanese army backed by a strengthened UNIFIL south of the Litani, Hezbollah has made a concession that it had resisted since the Israeli withdrawal in 2000.—Reuters
