ISLAMABAD: Global fossil fuel consumption must halve by 2035 and be phased out by 2070 to keep global warming below 1.5°C by the end of the century and avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change.

This was the main takeaway from a new analysis from Climate Analytics, a global science and policy institute, released on the sidelines of the UN climate talks in Bonn.

The analysis builds on the Climate Analytics and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)’s Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, which shows fossil fuel production and use peaking in 2025, falling 20pc by 2030, 50pc by 2035 and reaching zero globally by 2070.

The study noted that fossil fuel production and use accounted for 70 per cent of global emissions in 2023, making the transition away from fossil fuels the most significant lever for cutting emissions. The analysis also opposed investments in new oil and gas fields.

Climate expert says all countries must transition, but each state can do so at its own pace

According to its highest possible ambition scenario, global CO2 emissions reach net zero around 2045, net zero GHGs around 2060, temperatures peak at 1.7°C, and then fall to well below 1.5°C before 2100.

Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare said new oil and gas fields were “incompatible” with any credible transition away from fossil fuels. “…governments and fossil fuel companies continue to pour billions into expanding production, particularly of fossil gas. This is a fast-track pathway to climate chaos.”

“Fossil fuels are still pouring oil on the climate fire. Our analysis is clear: we need to cut fossil fuel use sharply this decade, halve it by 2035, and drive it down to real zero by 2070,” said Dr Neil Grant, senior expert, mitigation pathways at Climate Analytics.

“In Pakistan, the market is already driving the phase-out, and we’re seeing a huge wave of solar installation across the country. This is driven not by government leadership but by individual citizens choosing cheap and clean electricity over volatile and unreliable fossil fuels,” he told Dawn.

In addition, new oil and gas projects in Pakistan are a risky gamble. “There’s no certainty that, when these projects finally come online, that there will be the fossil fuel demand to meet them. A much surer bet would be to invest in the economy of the future: solar, batteries, electrification,” he said.

Mr Grant was of the view that while not all countries need to transition at the same pace, everyone does need to transition. “Countries like Pakistan can transition more slowly, but they still need to plan for their destination – zero fossil fuels by 2070.”

Published in Dawn, June 18th, 2026