HYDERABAD: Flour prices across Sindh have spiked dramatically after the provincial food department missed its annual wheat procurement target by more than 90 per cent, sparking fears of an acute food security crisis and forcing millers to call for emergency imports.

The regional government had set a target to procure one million tonne of wheat for the 2025–26 season. However, official sources admit the department has managed to secure just 80,000 tonne so far, with “hardly any likelihood” of further purchases.

The procurement failure has triggered a 25 per cent surge in the open market. In Hyderabad, wheat is trading at up to Rs10,900 rupees per 100kg, whilst in Karachi it has hit Rs11,100. Consequently, retail flour prices have jumped to between Rs135 and Rs140 per kg — vastly exceeding the government’s officially notified subsidised rate of Rs107 per kg.

Delayed launch blamed

The crisis comes despite Sindh boasting a bumper harvest. Initial estimates from the provincial agriculture department suggest Sindh produced 4.8 million tonne of wheat this season — up over one million tonne from the previous year’s output of 3.5 million tonne.

Millers fear a looming deficit of three million tonnes in country

However, bureaucratic inertia crippled the state’s buying power. After staying out of the market last year under International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan conditions, the Sindh government launched its procurement drive too late. Officials announced an April start, by which time a significant portion of the crop in lower Sindh — where climatic constraints force farmers into early harvesting so they can plant cotton — had already been sold.

Desperate to recoup costs, farmers bypassed the state’s support price of Rs3,500 per 40kg (Rs8,750 per 100kg) in favour of higher open-market rates. In March, grain was trading at roughly Rs7,800 per 100kg; within two months, that figure climbed by more than Rs3,200.

“The government will have to pull its socks up to control the situation,” a food department official remarked, claiming that a vast amount of the harvest has been hoarded by private speculators. “Annual wheat trading has become a lucrative business for informal players. Those who previously bought at Rs2,200 per 40kg have managed to flip it for Rs4,400.”

Import warnings

The food department currently holds a meager 125,000 to 150,000 tonne of carryover reserves — well short of what is required when the government typically begins releasing subsidised grain to mills in October and November. Internal discussions are now underway to force the private sector to declare its holdings.

The All Pakistan Flour Mills Association (APFMA) warned that millers are running on empty. “We have already urged the government to import wheat because the open market has its own dynamics,” said Abid Mehsud, APFMA vice-chairman.

The crisis is further compounded by inter-provincial trade barriers, with Punjab banning the outward movement of wheat. Mr Mehsud warned that Sindh’s grain is now being depleted by supply lines to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

“If I am not wrong, unseasonal rains mean we are looking at an overall nationwide deficit of three million tons this year,” Mr Mehsud added. “If the government does not move quickly to secure international imports, other foreign buyers will take advantage of global availability, leaving us stranded.”

The procurement failure represents a significant political headache for the Sindh government, which had tied the buying scheme to its flagship 84-billion-rupee Benazir Hari Card subsidy, an initiative meant to support small-scale farmers holding under 25 acres of land.

Published in Dawn, June 2nd, 2026