Looming danger
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EL NIÑO is set to grip South Asia this year. This weather phenomenon is characterised by warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The ocean’s temperature influences South Asia’s climate, particularly the intensity of the summer monsoon. As the Pacific’s water gets warmer, atmospheric convection moves eastward, drifting away from the Indian Ocean. Hence, the region experiences a weak monsoon due to suppressed rainfall and reduced movement of moisture. El Niño often leads to higher temperatures and prolonged heatwaves across the region.
The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have warned of a hot and dry monsoon this year. Sascof finalised the climate outlook for the 2026 southwest monsoon season — from June to September — during its 34th session held on April 28 this year in the Maldivian capital, Malé. The outlook projects below-normal rainfall and higher-than-usual maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of the South Asian region.
The WMO has cautioned that El Niño conditions are likely to be experienced as early as the May to July period. This climate event is hardly a positive sign for South Asia, as it brings droughts and prolonged heat spells to the region. The WMO has warned that early signs of El Niño indicate the possibility of an intense episode this year. Some weather pundits have referred to it as ‘super El Niño’. The WMO’s recent seasonal update shows “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the May-July quarter, with regional variations in precipitation patterns.
Climate scientist Peter van Rensch has described a grimmer scenario to the media. “It does look a little bit like what we saw in the 1997-98 event,” he says. That year witnessed the most catastrophic El Niño in recorded history. It commenced in May 1997 and lasted until June 1998, leaving a trail of devastation. Peru and Ecuador received 16 times more than the average regional rainfall, triggering massive floods. Indonesia and Australia’s southeast experienced a severe drought, causing forest fires that destroyed about 10 million hectares (25m acres) of forest. An outbreak of illnesses resulted in some 23,000 deaths in different countries.
El Niño conditions are likely to be experienced in South Asia.
Pakistan’s Met Office has predicted below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across the country. Its April-June quarterly outlook maps mark higher temperatures in the northern parts and the southern coastal strip of the country. Scorching heat can have serious ramifications. In the north, it can accelerate snowmelt, thereby increasing river flows. However, in the otherwise agriculturally rich plains, protracted intense heat can cause residual soil moisture to evaporate.
Beneficial rains in March and April have improved reservoir levels and river flows, preventing water shortages during the early Kharif season. With the onset of El Niño, Pakistan may experience sluggish monsoon rains. Yet this may not jeopardise water availability, given adequate reservoir storage and the expected snowmelt as temperatures rise in the north of the country.
The country received delayed, below-average snowfall this past winter, resulting in a relatively thin snowpack in the highlands. Fresh snow melts faster as the mercury rises, increasing river flows. The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has estimated a modest water shortage of about 15 per cent during the season. However, despite sufficient water in the system, administrative factors could limit water availability for Kharif crops.
Wapda’s delayed work on the tunnels of Tarbela Dam has restricted the dam’s outflow to 150,000 cusecs. There is a possibility that Wapda may urge Irsa to limit the storage level at 1,480 feet (451 metres) due to construction work. These constraints can cause a shortage in Indus flows from late May onwards.
El Niño-generated heatwaves could mean hardship especially during summer power outages. The energy grid could be further disrupted by fuel shortages stemming from the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
Following a fairly wet March and April, Sindh and Balochistan experienced a sudden heatwave in May. Karachi was sizzling at over 44 degrees Celsius, setting a new record for the highest daytime temperature since 2018. The intense heat caused several deaths in the metropolis. Unfortunately, the Met Office has predicted more heatwaves in the coming days.
The writer is a senior adviser on water governance at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.
Published in Dawn, May 21st, 2026
