KARACHI: El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season in South Asia, alongside higher-than-normal min­imum and maximum temperatures across most of the region, according to a statement by Pakistan’s meteorological office on Friday.

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It brings changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns. Con­ditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.

The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.

The climate outlook for the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June to Sept­ember) was finalised during the 34th session of the South Asian Climate Out­look Forum (Sascof-34) held in Malé, Maldives on Tuesday.

According to a statement by the Pakistan Meteor­ological Depar­tment (PMD), below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2026 southwest monsoon season over most parts of South Asia, particularly across the central parts of the region. “However, some areas over the northwestern, northeastern and parts of the southern region are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall,” the statement noted.

It said minimum and maximum temperatures during the upco­ming season are expected to be above normal across most of South Asia.

Currently, Enso-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are transitioning tow­ard El Nino conditions, the Sascof-34 statement said. “Based on the global climate model forecasts, there is strong consensus among experts that the El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season,” it added.

Published in Dawn, May 2nd, 2026