LAHORE: Pakistan’s cotton sector is once again facing uncertainty as the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) has set what stakeholders call “unrealistic” production targets for 2026-27, despite repeatedly missing goals over the past decade.

Stakeholders warn that the move could create fresh confusion for stakeholders, particularly cotton importers trying to plan their business strategies.

Criticising the target-setting process, they say that unlike global practices, where satellite surveys and stakeholder consultations guide crop estimates, Pakistan continues to fix targets “in drawing rooms,” resulting in wide gaps between official figures and actual output.

Referring to recent data from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association, Chairman of the Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Forum Ihsanul Haq noted that the 2025-26 target of 10.2 million bales yielded only about 5.6m bales.

Similarly, he added, production remained far be­low targets in previous years, including 2024-25, 2023-24, and 2022-23, when output dropped to historic lows.

Despite this trend, the FCA has now set a new target of around 9.64m bales for 2026-27, which stakeholders believe is again unattainable, especially in the absence of any concrete revival plan or enforcement of crop zoning laws.

Mr Haq also pointed to the growing influence of the sugar industry, warning that expansion of sugar mills, particularly in south Punjab, could further shift cultivation away from cotton to sugarcane, reducing cotton acreage.

He urged the government to adopt realistic targets, enforce crop zoning, and support cotton revival to reduce reliance on costly imports of cotton and edible oil, which currently burden the economy by billions of dollars annually.

Published in Dawn, April 20th, 2026