GILGIT: The National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC) of NDMA on Thursday issued an advisory regarding potential glacial lake outburst flood (Glof) risks from March to September 2026, citing anticipated rising temperatures, changing weather patterns, and possible early heatwave conditions in northern Pakistan.
The Gilgit-Baltistan government has begun taking precautionary measures. According to the NDMA statement, seasonal projections indicate that increasing temperatures from March to June may accelerate snow and glacier melt in Gilgit-Baltistan and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, heightening the risk of Glof incidents.
Such events can trigger flash floods, causing damage to homes, infrastructure, agriculture, and communication networks, and may result in human casualties.
Abdul Basit, former Glof-II project head in GB, told Dawn that the shift in weather pattern this winter has been more visible. “Snow arrived late in the season, and high temperatures were recorded in high-altitude areas,” he said.
He added that temperatures expected in April were already experienced in February. GB, home to around 8,400 glaciers and over 4,000 glacial lakes, has seen its ice cover deplete at a rapid pace, increasing the risk of floods and threatening future water shortages.
Published in Dawn, February 27th, 2026
