CLIMATE change has turned Greenland into a sought-after piece of real estate and the US is keen on it. Greenlanders, Denmark and Europe, however, are not ready to give in, underlining that “Greenland is not for sale. The curse of natural assets is well established. Many countries and regions that have attracted global attraction have endured it."
Soon, geopolitics gets involved; a difficult thing to avoid. Our own Balochistan, and now even Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), for their mineral riches, rare metals and geographical location, are no exception; geopolitics is deeply involved in both provinces, and now, Greenland is set to endure this curse It all began with the rapid melting of the massive ice sheet in the quiet and otherwise idle Arctic region. The area is experiencing the unprecedented impact of rising global temperatures. According to some reports, it is warming up faster than anywhere else in the world. Ecological reports indicate that Arctic temperatures are rising at four times the global average. Reportedly, from 2002 to 2016, Greenland lost 269-300 gigatons of ice per year. This was the largest contributor to global sea level rise.
The melting of the ice sheet in the region has created new opportunities to exploit the mineral assets beneath. Some 1.5 million tonnes of rare earth metals are estimated to be present beneath the surface there. These metals are needed for manufacturing everything — from smartphones to missiles and electric vehicles, superconducting motors to advanced radar systems and solar panels — to name a few.
The deposits in Greenland include at least 25 of the 60 metals that the US has declared necessary for its security, prosperity and global dominance. As such, Greenland is fast becoming the focus of attention for many in the world.
The opening of the Arctic waters has turned the region from a quiet, impassable buffer into a hinge for global power projections and potential flashpoints
It is thus not without reason that Mr Trump is going after Greenland.
Currently, China has a virtual monopoly on the supply of these rare earth metals. The US and the world depend on China for their supply given that the country presently mines 60–70pc of the total global supply of these metals.
Furthermore, processing, refining and separating these individual minerals from the earth lumps is a major step towards using them. And 90pc of the global refining capacity rests with China today.
This means the world, including the US and the West, is dependent on China. When the US levied tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing retaliated by leveraging its monopoly on rare earth metals and announced it would stop all its rare earth metal exports to the US, so Washington had to back track.
Greenland is the next mining frontier for these minerals, and thus, the race to control it is intensifying.
And there are geopolitical reasons behind the quest for Greenland. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet has opened the Arctic for commercial shipping. This means the Arctic has the capacity to replace the Suez and Panama canals. Although this route will be usable for a few months — from July to October/November window only — it reduces the shipment time from Asia to Europe by 40–50pc. A voyage from Japan to Europe will take 10 days, not 22-29 days, as it currently takes via the traditional routes.
However, using the Arctic as a shipping channel will further disturb the regional ecosystem. Specialised ice-class vehicles will be required, and insurance premiums will be high. New infrastructure, refuelling ports and satellite infrastructure will be required on the route. These have to be developed. The US objective also seems to be to control the route, including refuelling and satellite ports.
The opening of the Arctic waters has thus fundamentally changed the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (Nato) risk calculations.
It has turned the region from a quiet, impassable buffer into a hinge for global power projections and potential flashpoints.
This could allow Russia to expand its submarine operations beyond the Barents Sea, complicating Nato’s ability to keep track. Russian civilian, fishing, and research vessels will be able to monitor and even threaten Nato’s critical undersea infrastructure, including the cable and pipeline in the United Kingdom-GreenlandIceland gap.
Securing the Arctic region from Russian and Chinese intrusion remains a point of convergence of interest between Nato’s European members and the US. This may prevent Mr Trump from attempting to acquire Greenland and infuriating its other Nato allies.
In the meantime, the US search for rare earth metals continues, including from Pakistan. Recall the photograph of our Field Marshal smilingly showcasing rare earth minerals from Pakistan to Mr Trump in the White House.
The writer is an energy analyst and has delivered talks at the Department of Energy in Washington and the International Energy Agency.
X: @rhusainsyed
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, February 16th, 2026
