ISLAMABAD: Consu­mer inflation rose to 5.8 per cent in January from 5.6pc in December, driven largely by an increase in the prices of non-perishable food items, according to official figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday.

This slight uptick in monthly inflation reinforces the State Bank of Pakistan’s caution that inflationary pressures may briefly move beyond its comfort zone as domestic demand strengthens.

The response comes a week after the central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 10.50pc, warning that inflation could remain above its 5-7pc medium term target range for a few months, even as economic activity gathers pace and rising imports widen the trade deficit.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation increased by 0.4pc compared to the previous month.

The average inflation stood at 5.24pc during July-January FY26, the lowest compared to 6.50pc over the corresponding period of last year because of the high base effect of last year.

The average annual inflation for FY25 dropped sharply to 4.49pc from 23.41pc in the previous year, aided by a high base effect, declining food prices, and lower transport costs.

Inflation had previously fallen into single digits in August 2024 — at 9.6pc — for the first time in over three years. The government has projected an inflation target of 7pc for the current fiscal year.

Food inflation in January increased by 3.3pc in urban areas and 4.7pc in rural areas. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation dropped 0.2pc in urban areas while it increased by 0.4pc in rural areas, respectively. The non-food inflation reached 7.4pc in urban areas and in rural regions it stood at 6.9pc. This marks that non-food inflation is still very high.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy components, stood at 7.2pc in urban areas and 8.3pc in rural areas. Urban food items that saw notable month-on-month price increases included chicken (16.14pc), wheat (10.17pc), tomatoes (6.93pc), wheat flour (4.81pc), wheat products (2.59pc), fresh fruits (2.28pc), condiments and spices (2.02pc), fish (1.53pc), bakery and confectionary (1.22pc), pulse moong (1.14pc), dry fruits (1.04pc), cooking oil (0.73pc), mustard oil (0.63pc), milk powder (0.58pc) and meat (0.52pc).

Conversely, declines were noted in onions (28.48pc), potatoes (28.12pc), fresh vegetables (16.59pc), sugar (9.60pc), eggs (6.23pc), pulse gram (5.89pc), pulse masoor (4.05pc), gram whole (3.27pc), gur (2.53pc), pulse mash (1.93pc), besan (1.89pc), beans (0.60pc) and cigarettes (0.03pc).

Non-food categories also witnessed significant price hikes, including water supply (5.83pc), major tools and equipment (1.72pc), house rent (1.65pc), construction wage rates (1.51pc), transport services (1.35pc), woollen cloth (1.35pc), solid fuel (0.85pc) and ready-made garments (0.70pc).

Published in Dawn, February 3rd, 2026