THE first few days of 2026 have offered a stark illustration of how rapidly the global order is changing. The decisive action by the United States against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — taken at the very moment a Chinese delegation was arriving in Caracas — was more than a tactical move. It was a clear signal that the administration of President Donald Trump is implementing the priorities outlined in its National Security Strategy published in November last year. That document marked a decisive turn inward, reviving what many analysts now describe as a modernised Monroe Doctrine, with the Western Hemisphere once again treated as America’s primary strategic domain.

This approach, sometimes described as the ‘Trump Corollary’, suggests that the US reserves the right to intervene directly to secure its interests in its immediate sphere of influence. The implications extend far beyond Latin America. The message to Washington’s adversaries — and even its allies — is unmistakable: do not expect rescue if you fall outside America’s core strategic priorities.

This raises unsettling questions. Does this strategy imply that partners of Russia or China may be left exposed in future crises? Could Iran be the next in line, particularly given long-standing Israeli calls for regime change? And, if Venezuela and Iran — both major oil suppliers to China — are neutralised, does this increase the likelihood of heightened tensions over Taiwan?

Control over Venezuela would also grant Washington extraordinary leverage over global energy markets. With access to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, the United States could influence prices in ways that directly affect oil-dependent economies, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia. Trump has repeatedly emphasised the need for pumping more oil to lower oil prices to tame inflation at home. Combined with pressure for lower interest rates and potential political influence over the Federal Reserve, such a strategy could have far-reaching consequences.

As 2026 unfolds, Pakistan must read the signals carefully. The emerging global order appears less rule-based and more transactional. In such an environment, internal stability, economic resilience, and diplomatic balance will be critical.

Pakistan would do well to recall Henry Kissinger’s words about small states surviving not by choosing sides in great-power rivalries, but by carefully preserving room to manoeuvre in an uncertain world.

Adil Hanif Godil
London

Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2026