New Yorkers are projected to elect Democrat Zohran Mamdani as mayor on Tuesday, opening a new front in opposition to United States President Donald Trump and raising the spectre that the president will retaliate against the city where he made his name.

While Mamdani’s rise is dominating headlines, off-year elections for governor in Virginia and New Jersey will be seen as even more critical gauges of the US political mood nearly 10 months into Trump’s bruising right-wing reign.

Democratic wins there will be seen as signals that the beleaguered opposition is coming back to life ahead of next year’s midterm elections to decide control of Congress.

Mamdani, who describes himself as a socialist and campaigned on reducing costs for ordinary New Yorkers, was leading by seven points on 41 per cent in the latest AtlasIntel poll. Former state governor Andrew Cuomo trailed the 34-year-old with 34pc.

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels citizen crime patrol group, was polling at 24pc — a margin that could sway the vote if enough of his backers shifted to Cuomo.

Shortly after polls opened, Denise Gibbs, 46, a doctor of physiotherapy, voted at the Uncommon Bed-Stuy West school in Brooklyn.

“I sure hope it improves the city. I want to see it decrease divisiveness and increase livelihoods of working-class households and services for children,” she said, wearing green scrubs.

Polls close at 9pm (7am PKT on Wednesday).

A total of 1.14 million votes were cast in 2021, which saw the election of current Mayor Eric Adams, who bowed out after his reelection campaign struggled to build momentum amid scandals and corruption allegations. He endorsed Cuomo, 67.

Trump threat

In a final push for votes, Mamdani toured nightclubs over the Halloween weekend, making a pit stop at one event called “Papi Juice” without ditching his trademark dark suit.

If elected, he would be the city’s first Muslim mayor.

Far-right Republicans have scorned a video he issued in Arabic to supporters in the famously diverse city.

Cuomo visited all five city boroughs on Monday, while Sliwa crisscrossed the city pushing his “tough on crime” message.

The race has centred on cost of living, crime and how each candidate would handle Trump, who has threatened to withhold federal funds from the city.

“If Communist Candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the Election for Mayor of New York City, it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required, to my beloved first home,” Trump wrote on social media.

Mamdani fired back during a canvassing event in Queens on Monday.

“What was rumoured, what was feared has become naked and unabashed — the ‘MAGA’ movement’s embrace of Andrew Cuomo,” he said.

Syracuse University political science professor Grant Reeher said a Mamdani win would set up a “showdown” with Trump.

“Trump will treat New York City more aggressively,” he said. “There will be some kind of political showdown.” Mamdani’s improbable ascent to the cusp of leading America’s biggest city has also sent shock waves through the Democratic Party, which is struggling to decide whether to embrace a centrist or a populist, leftist path.

“I think that this has to be a party that actually allows Americans to see themselves in it and not just be a mirror image of just a few people who are engaged in politics,” Mamdani said at a dance event with the elderly on Friday.

Big test of US mood

Voters in the states of New Jersey and Virginia will pick a new governor on Tuesday.

Democratic Party candidate Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, faces off against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman backed by Trump, with the two neck-and-neck according to polling.

In Virginia’s race for governor, Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger has been polling comfortably ahead of Virginia’s Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears.

Both sides have wheeled out big guns, with former president Barack Obama rallying support for Spanberger and Sherrill at two separate events over the weekend and Trump scheduling tele-rallies for both Virginia and New Jersey on the eve of voting.

Obama also reportedly spoke to Mamdani over the weekend but — reflecting the internal party debate — held off endorsing him.