ISLAMABAD: The country’s economy is estimated to have grown by 3.04 per cent in FY25, higher than the 2.68pc reported in May, mainly due to stronger performance in agriculture, industry and services during the fourth quarter, despite a decline in public education and health sectors.

The upward revision in the growth rate also stemmed from a smaller size of the economy — $407 billion instead of $411bn — and a lower per capita income of $1,812 against $1,824 estimated in May this year on the basis of the first three quarters.

“The updated growth rate of GDP for FY25 is 3.04pc as compared to 2.68pc estimated previously,” the National Accounts Committee (NAC) announced on Wednesday. The revised rate covers the entire fiscal year (July 2024-June 2025), unlike the earlier figure based only on the first three quarters. “The economy posted a growth of 5.66pc during Q4 of FY25,” it added.

The NAC said the education sector grew by 4.13pc compared to 4.43pc reported earlier, due to a decline in public education. Similarly, human health and social work activities slowed to 3.56pc from 3.71pc, also because of weaker public sector performance.

Improvement reflects stronger Q4 gains in agriculture, industry and services despite weaker public education and health

The NAC meeting, presided over by the secretary of planning and development, also revised the FY24 growth estimate to 2.58pc of GDP from 2.51pc announced in May, mainly because of better updated output from Fauji Oil Terminal, National Logistics Corporation and K-Electric.

Updated growth during the first three quarters of FY25 was reported at 1.8pc, 1.94pc and 2.79pc, compared to 1.37pc, 1.53pc and 2.40pc, respectively, approved by the NAC on a provisional basis before the budget for 2025-26.

The updated full-year growth rates for agriculture, industry and services were 1.51pc, 5.26pc and 3pc, compared to earlier estimates of 0.56pc, 4.77pc and 2.91pc, respectively. In agriculture, important crops showed a slight improvement from -13.49pc to -13.12pc, while other crops recorded a significant jump from 4.78pc to 19.55pc due to double-digit growth in green fodder (16pc), vegetables (12pc), fruits (10pc) and tobacco (25.7pc). Livestock growth slowed to 2.94pc from 4.72pc due to higher fodder inputs. Forestry and fishing grew by 2.66pc and 1.40pc, respectively.

These changes were driven by upward revisions in annual benchmarks for agriculture, which improved growth to 1.55pc in Q1 from 0.84pc, to 1.97pc in Q2 from 0.79pc and to 2.36pc in Q3 from 1.18pc. Industry also improved in all three quarters — to 0.32pc in Q1 from -0.91pc, to 0.21pc in Q2 from -0.99pc and to 1.23pc in Q3 from -1.14pc.

The services sector improved slightly to 2.36pc in Q1 from 2.28pc but was revised down to 2.45pc in Q2 from 2.59pc and to 3.45pc in Q3 from 3.99pc.

Growth in the fourth quarter was 5.66pc, supported by all three sectors: agriculture (+0.18pc), industry (+19.95pc) and services (+3.72pc). In agriculture, important crops declined by 17.55pc, but other crops grew by 17.99pc, driven by increases in green fodder (14.2pc), onion (12.6pc) and mangoes (26.4pc). Livestock, forestry and fishing also grew by 1.44pc, 3.6pc and 2.23pc, respectively.

Industry posted a strong recovery in Q4 with 19.95pc growth compared to a contraction of 3.06pc in the same period last year. All sub-sectors contributed positively: mining and quarrying (+1.94pc), large-scale manufacturing (+2.96pc), and particularly electricity, gas and water supply (+121.38pc), driven by higher subsidies, a lower deflator and a low base effect from last year’s -31.59pc. Construction also grew by 17.65pc due to higher cement production and increased government infrastructure spending.

The services sector grew by 3.72pc in Q4, with all components showing positive contributions: wholesale and retail trade (+2.08pc), transportation and storage (+4.06pc), information and communication (+3.13pc), finance and insurance (+6.81pc), public administration and social security (+12.87pc), education (+3.71pc), health and social work (+2.51pc) and other private services (+3.03pc).

Industry grew by 5.26pc in FY25 compared to 4.77pc estimated earlier. Mining and quarrying improved from -3.38pc to -2.35pc due to better output in oil (3.5pc), limestone (31.6pc), marble (11.6pc) and exploration costs (26.1pc). Large-scale manufacturing, measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing, improved from -1.53pc to -0.69pc due to gains in beverages (1.61pc), tobacco (6.99pc), textiles (2.49pc), wearing apparel (5.7pc), coke and petroleum (5.33pc), pharmaceuticals (2.74pc), automobiles (46.15pc) and transport equipment (36.6pc).

Published in Dawn, October 9th, 2025