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THE West and Russia are two cyclops who have never been able to see eye to eye. Over centuries, they have grown into giants with ambitions beyond their borders and power beyond their dreams. For the rest of the world, they are a nightmare.
The present conflict in and over Ukraine is more than a test of nerves or a test of their weaponry. It is a puppet show with the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (57 member countries including 32 Nato member states), each pulling the strings of a single marionette — the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky began his career as a comedian. That should not be held against him. President Ronald Reagan — arguably one of the most successful US presidents in modern times — started as a Hollywood actor. His antipathy towards Russia erupted when in 1947, he testified before the House Un-American Activities Committee. He outed colleagues who had closet links with the communist party.
As president, he dubbed the then Soviet Union an ‘evil empire’. He spent more money — more than any other president — on strengthening US military prowess. In 1983, he defied the Soviets to compete with his Star Wars initiative — a space-based missile defence system — which would have bankrupted an already insolvent Soviet Union.
Trump’s tirades should be seen as a North-South axis strategy.
His support of the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s glasnost and perestroika led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1990–91. Ironically, 35 years later, Reagan’s successor Donald Trump is now beholden to Gorbachev’s successor Vladimir Putin to consummate the US peace plan for Ukraine.
Over the years, US foreign policy vis-à-vis the Soviet Union/ Russia has been a mix and match of deterrence and détente. Trump’s predecessors preferred deterrence. Trump has opted for détente.
Some have questioned Trump’s motives; others suspect him of pro-Russian leanings. An adage used by many peacemaking leaders (notably Israel’s Shimon Peres and Colombia’s Juan Santos) should be enough to silence them: ‘One doesn’t make peace with one’s friends. One makes peace with one’s enemies.’
Santos made another observation: “Waging war is much more popular than negotiating, because there you need to compromise.” That would explain the continued but waning belligerence of Zelensky, egged on by the British-led Alliance of the Willing.
For Zelensky, now any compromise is acceptable, as long as it assures his survival. For Putin, no compromise is acceptable that does not restore (even partially) Russia’s previous borders. For Trump, any compromise is acceptable if it can lead to the Nobel Peace Prize.
One forgets that in 2018, in Trump’s first presidency, he watched passively while Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman and Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau exchanged barbs over human rights violations by Saudi Arabia. Ambassadors were recalled, airline links severed, trade reduced to a trickle, and Saudi investors ordered to liquidate their holdings in Canada. Trump remained aloof from the fray, advising Trudeau and MBS ‘to sort it out themselves’.
This month saw MBS play the detached host in Jeddah, while Trump’s officials and Ukrainian representatives scored points off each other. It was a one-sided match. The high-powered US side consisted of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz arm-twisted Zelensky’s B team: his faceless minister of foreign affairs; his beleaguered minister of defence; the head of his secretariat; and a lowly colonel.
Trump’s tirades against Canada and Mexico and his moves on Greenland should be seen not so much as a revived isolationism but as a structured, North-South axis strategy. The focus of Trump’s US has foreshortened its sights, from countries across the Atlantic and the Pacific to countries north and south sharing its archipelago.
That would leave Europe to the Russians, Taiwan and the Koreas to China, the Middle East to an emboldened Israel, and India to dominate the subcontinent. Trump has the next four years in which to fulfil his vision. He will leave his successor and history to unravel its consequences. Interestingly, both China’s Xi Jinping and Indian PM Modi have chosen to remain silent witnesses to the Ukrainian imbroglio.
Meanwhile here, in Pakistan, dark clouds — a mini-Ukraine — are fomenting in Balochistan. The recent attacks on an unarmed passenger train and forays against security forces are disturbing auguries. Like Ukraine, gas and precious minerals are involved.
Recently, our ambassador to Turkmenistan was deported from Los Angeles airport. Pakistanis students fear arbitrary deportation. Pakistan is included in the draft group list of countries affected by travel restrictions into the US. India and Bangladesh enjoy an exemption from the three red, orange and yellow lists. There is a lesson for us in this, if only we had eyes to weep.
The writer is an author.
Published in Dawn, March 20th, 2025
