JERUSALEM: The first phase of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas will end on Saturday without any certainty over the planned second phase, which is hoped to bring a more permanent end to the Gaza conflict.

The first, 42-day phase of the ceasefire agreement, which began on Jan 19, stipulated a pause in fighting and the release of 33 Israeli prisoners in exchange for approximately 1,900 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Analysts say that phase is likely to be extended because it is the preferred scenario for Israel, which has the upper hand in the conflict’s aftermath.

What will happen on March 1?

“One thing we can expect is that phase two won’t start tomorrow, but I think the ceasefire probably won’t collapse also,” Max Rodenbeck, an analyst for the International Crisis Group, said on Friday.

Egypt, which along with Qatar and the United States has been mediating peace efforts in Gaza, will host a new round of talks with the hopes of determining the future of the ceasefire. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netan­yahu on Thursday dispatched a delegation to Cairo, “to take forward negotiations to get our hostages home”, government spokesman David Mencer said.

“The preferred Israeli scenario is to free more hostages under an extension of the ceasefire’s first phase, rather than a second phase”, Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday.

Of the 251 prisoners taken during Hamas’s Oct 7 raid, 58 prisoners remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead. Amit Segal, an Israeli commentator close to Netanyahu in an interview this week said it was likely Israel would favour “prolonging the deal for yet another week”.

Hamas has on several occasions reiterated its “readiness to engage in negotiations for its second phase”.

On Friday, the group said it was not willing to extend the first phase. A senior Hamas official said that the Pales­tinian group was prepared to release all remaining prisoners.

Published in Dawn, March 1st, 2025