TORONTO: Before Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would resign, his Liberal Party was headed for an electoral wipeout, but polls show the party gaining momentum, propelled by threats from Donald Trump.

Surveys indicate Canadians believe Mark Carney, a former central banker who is the front-runner to succeed Trudeau as Liberal leader and prime minister, would be an effective bulwark against a US president who has questioned Canadian sovereignty.

The shifting race has unsettled Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who appeared on track to easily oust Trudeau as prime minister and end a decade of Liberal governance. The poll swing has been dramatic, with voters increasingly saying they want a leader capable of managing volatile US relations.

Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, said the Liberal polling rise currently has the Conservatives “panicking,” but stressed things can shift before the election, which could be called in weeks or put off until October.

Carney is “the new kid on the block,” and benefiting from a freshness that may be washed away as the Conservatives focus on a new Liberal target, after hammering an anti-Trudeau message for years.

Poll surge

In an Angus Reid poll in late Dec, 16 per cent of people said they intended to vote Liberal in the next election, with Conservative support at 45pc. On Jan 6, Trudeau said he would resign as prime minister as soon as a new Liberal leader was chosen.

Carney entered the leadership race on Jan 16. He is considered the favourite in the vote set for March 9. Angus Reid data released on Thursday, which asked about voter intention with Carney as the presumed leader, put Liberal support at 37pc, three points behind the Conservatives.

A Leger poll conducted last week has the Liberals with Carney as leader at 39pc and the Tories at 40. In the Angus Reid survey, more than a third of Canadians listed “relations with the US including tariffs” as a top issue, surpassing housing affordability, which has been a national obsession. Multiple surveys this month show Carney edging out Poilievre on ability to handle US relations.

Western University political scientist Laura Stephenson said Canada’s current political environment is largely a Trump creation. The US president has threated 25pc import tariffs on all Canadian goods, which would likely cripple the Canadian economy if they come into force early next month.

Trump also repeatedly boasts about making Canada the 51st US state. Carney, 59, made a fortune as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs before becoming governor of the Bank of Canada, helping steer the country through the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

In 2013, he became the first non-Briton to lead the Bank of England since its founding in 1694, and was credited by some with providing steady leadership through the turbulent Brexit process. Since leaving the bank in 2020, he has served as a United Nations envoy on climate and finance and as chair of a major Canadian corporation.

Published in Dawn, February 23rd, 2025